Final 2012-13 Rankings

	Team	Score	Prev.
1	Alabama	3646.88	1
2	Oregon	3327.08	3
3	Texas A&M	3281.92	5
4	Notre Dame	3196.83	2
5	Georgia	3140.05	7
6	Florida	3124.73	4
7	Florida State	3109.00	8
8	Kansas State	3080.39	6
9	Stanford	3073.87	9
10	South Carolina	3049.26	10
11	Ohio State	2990.71	12
12	Oklahoma State	2989.02	14
13	LSU	2983.11	13
14	Oklahoma	2942.99	11
15	Oregon State	2926.66	15
16	Clemson	2914.52	17
17	Nebraska	2886.78	16
18	Utah State	2856.72	22
19	Boise State	2848.31	18
20	Penn State	2848.24	19
21	Northwestern	2826.75	21
22	Wisconsin	2814.49	20
23	Texas	2805.92	25
24	Baylor	2786.28	30
25	Cincinnati	2774.16	26
26	Texas Christian	2751.91	29
27	Michigan	2751.56	27
28	USC	2730.28	23
29	BYU	2729.27	32
30	UCLA	2726.09	24
31	Louisville	2717.36	42
32	Central Florida	2706.99	41
33	Northern Illinois	2700.59	28
34	San Jose State	2695.27	31
35	Arkansas State	2680.96	36
36	Arizona State	2676.96	38
37	Rutgers	2666.99	34
38	Michigan St.	2656.47	35
39	Mississippi	2656.16	52
40	Tulsa	2637.85	50
41	Vanderbilt	2631.68	46
42	Tennessee	2629.26	40
43	Texas Tech	2627.61	37
44	North Carolina	2619.67	43
45	Georgia Tech	2606.08	56
46	Kent State	2599.36	44
47	Pittsburgh	2581.93	39
48	Syracuse	2578.68	58
49	Mississippi State	2564.25	45
50	Louisiana Tech	2559.07	53
51	Fresno State	2554.60	33
52	Virginia Tech	2551.45	54
53	Arizona	2550.78	51
54	Iowa State	2549.96	47
55	Missouri	2535.92	59
56	San Diego State	2524.51	48
57	Louisiana-Lafayette	2523.19	55
58	Miami, FL	2522.32	57
59	West Virginia	2508.31	49
60	Washington	2464.99	63
61	Toledo	2447.72	60
62	SMU	2435.50	74
63	Ball State	2425.20	61
64	North Carolina St.	2414.37	64
65	Bowling Green	2405.59	65
66	Louisiana-Monroe	2397.01	62
67	Nevada	2394.70	66
68	Utah	2384.07	68
69	Western Kentucky	2335.75	69
70	Ohio	2326.27	79
71	Purdue	2306.56	67
72	Arkansas	2298.04	73
73	Connecticut	2297.78	71
74	Troy	2288.19	72
75	Duke	2283.46	76
76	Rice	2262.34	81
77	Iowa	2259.49	75
78	Minnesota	2251.92	77
79	Navy	2251.57	70
80	Indiana	2223.15	78
81	East Carolina	2205.83	82
82	Virginia	2189.94	83
83	Marshall	2163.49	85
84	Middle Tennessee	2160.25	84
85	Air Force	2144.22	80
86	Houston	2140.52	88
87	South Florida	2135.12	86
88	California	2118.66	87
89	Central Michigan	2107.61	91
90	North Texas	2101.56	89
91	Temple	2097.58	90
92	Texas San Antonio	2094.35	93
93	Florida International	2091.91	94
94	Western Mich.	2084.14	92
95	Auburn	2057.83	97
96	Boston College	2051.48	95
97	Maryland	2047.91	96
98	Memphis	2021.67	99
99	Wyoming	2005.85	98
100	Kentucky	1988.92	100
101	Florida Atlantic	1969.77	101
102	Kansas	1960.64	102
103	Buffalo	1957.24	103
104	UAB	1948.44	105
105	New Mexico	1938.92	104
106	UTEP	1934.97	110
107	Texas St. San Marcos	1918.66	108
108	Wake Forest	1916.70	106
109	Colorado St.	1900.39	107
110	Miami, OH	1899.96	112
111	Illinois	1898.97	111
112	Akron	1889.90	113
113	Army	1888.24	109
114	UNLV	1862.10	114
115	Washington St.	1831.58	115
116	Eastern Michigan	1798.40	116
117	South Alabama	1796.09	117
118	Southern Miss.	1768.54	119
119	Hawaii	1765.86	118
120	Tulane	1729.54	120
121	New Mexico State	1612.14	121
122	Idaho	1545.08	123
123	Colorado	1537.94	122
124	Massachusetts	1421.54	124

Third Quarter Update

If the game ended at the end of the third quarter, the rankings would not change, although Notre Dame would have a few more points.  The most important result, though, is that by scoring in the third quarter, Notre Dame probably is now safe from falling all the way to the #5 spot in the rankings.

	Team	Score	Prev.
1	Alabama	3656.83	1
2	Oregon	3327.08	3
3	Texas A&M	3282.98	5
4	Notre Dame	3181.07	2
5	Georgia	3140.86	7
6	Florida	3124.73	4
7	Florida State	3109.00	8
8	Kansas State	3080.39	6
9	Stanford	3072.79	9
10	South Carolina	3049.26	10

Halftime Update

Before the start of the game, I performed a rough calculation (but didn’t have a chance to post) what it would take to knock Alabama out of the top spot in the xHPI rankings.        Alabama would have to lose by a score of something like 45-14 to lose the top spot in the rankings.  By halftime, that clearly wasn’t going to happen.  So there is no real mystery about who will end up #1.  The only question is what will happen to Notre Dame.

Here is what the top 10 would look like if the game ended at halftime.

	Team	Score	Prev.
1	Alabama	3680.27	1
2	Oregon	3327.08	3
3	Texas A&M	3285.46	5
4	Notre Dame	3150.57	2
5	Georgia	3142.74	7
6	Florida	3124.73	4
7	Florida State	3109.00	8
8	Kansas State	3080.39	6
9	Stanford	3070.72	9
10	South Carolina	3049.26	10

Ranking Schedule Strength

In the early part of the bowl season, waiting for the games can be difficult.  I decided to pass the time by evaluating each team’s schedule strength.  I calculated the average rating of each opponent on each team’s schedule.  One difficulty in doing so is determining how to handle FCS opponents.  While they certainly vary in strength, I substituted a value equivalent to a team at the 10th percentile of all FBS teams.

Since SEC teams dominated the rankings, it is not surprising that they also ended up with the toughest schedules: five of the seven strongest schedules belonged to SEC teams.  Kansas was the non-SEC team with the toughest schedule.  The Jayhawks’ 11 losses all came to teams in bowl games.

	Team	Average Opponent Rating
1	Missouri	2752.66
2	Kansas	2679.10
3	Florida	2666.62
4	Auburn	2652.93
5	Arkansas	2636.68
6	California	2635.78
7	Kentucky	2628.38
8	Arizona	2616.42
9	Iowa State	2616.39
10	Oklahoma	2616.07
11	Michigan St.	2612.75
12	Oklahoma State	2606.74
13	Texas Christian	2602.23
14	Baylor	2599.85
15	Tennessee	2597.83
16	Stanford	2582.72
17	Nebraska	2578.39
18	Notre Dame	2574.66
19	Michigan	2567.60
20	Texas	2564.72
21	Mississippi	2561.91
22	Oregon State	2557.75
23	West Virginia	2556.87
24	USC	2552.37
25	Kansas State	2550.39
26	LSU	2546.27
27	Alabama	2538.51
28	Illinois	2537.61
29	Colorado	2536.03
30	Texas A&M	2535.80
31	Texas Tech	2529.55
32	Iowa	2529.53
33	Miami, FL	2526.96
34	South Carolina	2525.24
35	Wisconsin	2525.19
36	Washington	2509.44
37	South Florida	2506.54
38	Georgia	2502.51
39	Boston College	2501.50
40	Virginia Tech	2495.02
41	UCLA	2485.46
42	Washington St.	2483.10
43	Syracuse	2465.04
44	Georgia Tech	2455.89
45	Purdue	2455.45
46	Mississippi State	2454.35
47	Wake Forest	2452.40
48	Duke	2449.56
49	Penn State	2443.17
50	Oregon	2442.97
51	Ohio State	2439.55
52	Utah	2432.70
53	Vanderbilt	2430.90
54	Northwestern	2420.26
55	Minnesota	2418.94
56	Virginia	2417.56
57	Indiana	2412.45
58	Temple	2405.06
59	Pittsburgh	2403.05
60	Arizona State	2390.60
61	Maryland	2390.13
62	North Texas	2374.36
63	Clemson	2368.23
64	BYU	2359.84
65	Idaho	2357.70
66	Southern Miss.	2347.55
67	Eastern Michigan	2345.04
68	Florida State	2339.76
69	Arkansas State	2333.18
70	Buffalo	2328.48
71	Western Kentucky	2314.96
72	Cincinnati	2314.69
73	Miami, OH	2312.21
74	Florida International	2310.91
75	Hawaii	2310.61
76	Navy	2309.57
77	Louisiana-Lafayette	2298.81
78	Rutgers	2298.58
79	Tulane	2295.48
80	UTEP	2295.07
81	Louisville	2293.64
82	Connecticut	2291.18
83	Army	2290.74
84	SMU	2289.32
85	UAB	2283.85
86	Massachusetts	2277.19
87	Ball State	2272.99
88	Akron	2268.40
89	Troy	2267.61
90	Fresno State	2261.82
91	San Jose State	2249.43
92	Colorado St.	2248.96
93	South Alabama	2244.23
94	UNLV	2243.54
95	Toledo	2237.63
96	Tulsa	2237.62
97	San Diego State	2232.87
98	North Carolina	2232.41
99	Wyoming	2231.85
100	Central Florida	2224.51
101	Marshall	2214.60
102	Louisiana-Monroe	2207.70
103	New Mexico	2206.95
104	Air Force	2202.25
105	Houston	2199.14
106	New Mexico State	2196.66
107	Florida Atlantic	2191.52
108	Boise State	2186.84
109	Louisiana Tech	2179.90
110	Texas St. San Marcos	2179.89
111	Nevada	2176.34
112	East Carolina	2174.41
113	Western Mich.	2172.98
114	Central Michigan	2171.82
115	Utah State	2167.32
116	Rice	2160.08
117	Kent State	2159.93
118	Memphis	2157.43
119	Bowling Green	2129.44
120	North Carolina St.	2100.77
121	Ohio	2087.26
122	Northern Illinois	2075.26
123	Middle Tennessee	2067.72
124	Texas San Antonio	2061.44

Bowl Picks

The table below lists xHPI’s picks for each of the 35 bowl games this season.  For each game, xHPI’s pick is listed as the favorite, along with the confidence points assigned to each game (higher points = higher level of confidence in the pick).  Confidence points are assigned based on predicted margin of victory.

Date	Bowl	Favorite	Underdog	Confidence
12/15	New Mexico	Arizona	Nevada	14
12/15	Idaho Potato	Utah State	Toledo	26
12/20	Poinsettia	San Diego State	BYU	3
12/21	Beef O’Brady’s	Central Florida	Ball State	17
12/22	New Orleans	Louisiana-Lafayette	East Carolina	30
12/22	Las Vegas	Boise State	Washington	31
12/24	Hawaii	Fresno State	SMU	29
12/26	Little Caesar’s	Western Kentucky	Central Michigan	19
12/27	Military	San Jose State	Bowling Green	23
12/27	Belk	Cincinnati	Duke	32
12/27	Holiday	UCLA	Baylor	12
12/28	Independence	Louisiana-Monroe	Ohio	25
12/28	Russell Athletic	Rutgers	Virginia Tech	10
12/28	Meineke Car Care	Texas Tech	Minnesota	33
12/29	Armed Forces	Rice	Air Force	6
12/29	Kraft Fight Hunger	Arizona State	Navy	27
12/29	Pinstripe	Syracuse	West Virginia	1
12/29	Alamo	Oregon State	Texas	5
12/29	Buffalo Wild Wings	TCU	Michigan State	7
12/31	Music City	Vanderbilt	North Carolina St.	22
12/31	Sun	USC	Georgia Tech	21
12/31	Liberty	Iowa State	Tulsa	2
12/31	Chick-fil-A	LSU	Clemson	9
1/1	Gator	Northwestern	Mississippi State	18
1/1	Heart of Dallas	Oklahoma State	Purdue	34
1/1	Capital One	Georgia	Nebraska	15
1/1	Outback	South Carolina	Michigan	20
1/1	Rose	Stanford	Wisconsin	24
1/1	Orange	Florida State	Northern Illinois	28
1/2	Sugar	Florida	Louisville	35
1/3	Fiesta	Oregon	Kansas State	11
1/4	Cotton	Texas A&M	Oklahoma	13
1/5	BBVA Compass	Pittsburgh	Mississippi	8
1/6	GoDaddy.com	Arkansas State	Kent State	4
1/7	BCS Champ	Alabama	Notre Dame	16

12/1 Performance

Yuck.

Thankfully, there were only 18 games last weekend.  Of course, the small sample size may be part of the reason that xHPI’s performance was so poor.  Even with the poor showing, however, xHPI remains 21 games above .500 for the season.  See for yourself:

	Last Week	Percentage	Season	Percentage
Against the Spread	6-12	33.3%	263-242-8	52.1%
Straight-Up	14-4	77.8%	389-123	76.0%
Best Bets	2-3	40.0%	26-24	52.0%
Alt. Best Bets	1-6	14.3%	19-15	55.9%

I will continue to track xHPI vs. the alternate version that excludes the results of games against non-FBS teams.  The results remain mixed.

	Last Week	Percent	Season	Percent	Week Diff. from Score	Season Diff. from Score
xHPI	6-12	33.3%	91-87-6	51.1%	14.10	11.61
Alt. HPI	5-13	27.8%	87-91-6	48.9%	13.57	11.62

I will post predictions for the bowl games after this weekend’s Army-Navy game.

Rankings through December 1, 2012

	Team	Score	Prev.
1	Alabama	3550.87	1
2	Notre Dame	3365.38	2
3	Oregon	3303.18	3
4	Florida	3201.92	4
5	Texas A&M	3193.69	5
6	Kansas State	3165.29	6
7	Georgia	3114.37	7
8	Florida State	3079.24	8
9	Stanford	3074.71	9
10	South Carolina	3039.04	10
11	Oklahoma	3019.20	12
12	Ohio State	3015.11	13
13	LSU	2986.04	14
14	Oklahoma State	2971.48	11
15	Oregon State	2956.45	16
16	Nebraska	2922.73	15
17	Clemson	2906.66	17
18	Boise State	2896.36	18
19	Penn State	2884.72	19
20	Wisconsin	2851.79	29
21	Northwestern	2811.36	21
22	Utah State	2809.48	24
23	USC	2804.74	23
24	UCLA	2804.53	22
25	Texas	2801.53	20
26	Cincinnati	2791.65	25
27	Michigan	2778.15	26
28	Northern Illinois	2768.73	28
29	Texas Christian	2744.36	27
30	Baylor	2718.09	36
31	San Jose State	2696.12	31
32	BYU	2680.89	34
33	Fresno State	2678.36	37
34	Michigan St.	2669.90	33
35	Rutgers	2668.67	30
36	Arkansas State	2665.72	46
37	Texas Tech	2660.22	32
38	Arizona State	2649.03	38
39	Pittsburgh	2647.56	51
40	Tennessee	2632.06	41
41	Central Florida	2629.94	35
42	Louisville	2629.45	42
43	North Carolina	2622.40	43
44	Kent State	2614.61	40
45	Mississippi State	2608.59	39
46	Vanderbilt	2605.25	44
47	Iowa State	2601.37	45
48	San Diego State	2586.10	49
49	West Virginia	2582.20	58
50	Tulsa	2582.02	50
51	Arizona	2578.16	47
52	Mississippi	2570.00	48
53	Louisiana Tech	2546.21	52
54	Virginia Tech	2545.19	53
55	Georgia Tech	2537.91	55
56	Louisiana-Lafayette	2536.73	54
57	Miami, FL	2522.23	56
58	Syracuse	2522.09	57
59	Missouri	2512.99	59
60	Toledo	2506.73	60
61	Ball State	2490.29	62
62	Louisiana-Monroe	2489.46	61
63	Washington	2482.00	63
64	North Carolina St.	2457.59	64
65	Bowling Green	2406.94	66
66	Nevada	2400.27	65
67	Purdue	2398.95	67
68	Utah	2390.29	68
69	Western Kentucky	2372.09	69
70	Connecticut	2308.64	70
71	Troy	2307.34	71
72	Navy	2305.45	74
73	Arkansas	2301.37	73
74	SMU	2289.99	75
75	Iowa	2278.75	76
76	Duke	2273.40	77
77	Indiana	2258.79	80
78	Minnesota	2258.16	78
79	Ohio	2249.91	79
80	Air Force	2211.98	85
81	East Carolina	2210.42	82
82	Rice	2208.87	81
83	Virginia	2195.00	84
84	Middle Tennessee	2165.68	72
85	Marshall	2151.52	83
86	South Florida	2131.72	86
87	California	2129.05	88
88	Houston	2125.62	87
89	North Texas	2110.36	89
90	Central Michigan	2104.04	91
91	Temple	2103.21	90
92	Western Mich.	2099.67	92
93	Texas San Antonio	2085.38	93
94	Florida International	2084.01	94
95	Maryland	2056.13	100
96	Boston College	2052.91	96
97	Auburn	2052.77	95
98	Wyoming	2033.49	98
99	Memphis	1997.89	99
100	Kentucky	1989.08	101
101	Florida Atlantic	1974.47	102
102	Kansas	1968.16	97
103	Buffalo	1965.29	103
104	New Mexico	1959.41	105
105	UAB	1942.64	104
106	Texas St. San Marcos	1921.41	111
107	Wake Forest	1920.25	106
108	Colorado St.	1919.51	109
109	UTEP	1918.33	107
110	Illinois	1911.25	108
111	Miami, OH	1899.88	110
112	Army	1895.62	113
113	Akron	1887.68	112
114	UNLV	1872.07	115
115	Washington St.	1842.36	116
116	Eastern Michigan	1816.31	117
117	South Alabama	1802.81	114
118	Hawaii	1788.09	120
119	Southern Miss.	1742.71	118
120	Tulane	1705.14	119
121	New Mexico State	1604.24	121
122	Colorado	1549.42	122
123	Idaho	1538.47	123
124	Massachusetts	1416.22	124