2011-2 Final Standings

	Team	Score	Prev.
1	Alabama	3555.66	3
2	Oklahoma State	3426.34	2
3	LSU	3422.01	1
4	Oklahoma	3200.67	4
5	Stanford	3143.36	5
6	Oregon	3111.71	7
7	Wisconsin	3105.42	6
8	Michigan	3066.06	8
9	USC	3033.46	9
10	Boise State	3005.41	11
11	Florida State	2974.22	10
12	South Carolina	2969.12	14
13	Texas A&M	2966.87	13
14	Houston	2940.55	17
15	Arkansas	2923.85	18
16	Notre Dame	2913.96	12
17	Georgia	2896.05	15
18	Michigan St.	2884.03	16
19	Southern Miss.	2828.53	22
20	West Virginia	2819.70	26
21	Baylor	2806.37	23
22	Missouri	2801.22	27
23	Virginia Tech	2799.58	20
24	Texas Christian	2789.37	24
25	Kansas State	2784.88	21
26	Nebraska	2764.90	19
27	Texas	2763.88	29
28	Rutgers	2744.06	28
29	Temple	2737.15	31
30	Cincinnati	2723.04	30
31	Toledo	2681.10	34
32	Clemson	2680.16	25
33	Miami, FL	2666.22	32
34	South Florida	2631.61	36
35	Tulsa	2625.26	37
36	Northern Illinois	2623.11	43
37	Penn State	2622.45	35
38	Arizona State	2610.33	33
39	Louisiana Tech	2579.52	44
40	BYU	2571.56	47
41	Florida	2548.99	51
42	Mississippi State	2548.27	49
43	Vanderbilt	2541.96	48
44	Ohio State	2541.10	38
45	California	2533.93	41
46	Louisville	2528.21	45
47	North Carolina	2526.72	39
48	Iowa	2514.44	42
49	Georgia Tech	2510.51	46
50	Ohio	2496.22	55
51	Pittsburgh	2494.03	40
52	Utah	2482.32	53
53	Central Florida	2473.73	56
54	Northwestern	2459.93	50
55	SMU	2453.47	70
56	Illinois	2449.76	54
57	Wake Forest	2447.44	52
58	Connecticut	2439.57	58
59	North Carolina St.	2433.17	61
60	Auburn	2423.49	66
61	Western Mich.	2418.42	57
62	Navy	2402.11	63
63	Utah State	2394.98	72
64	Arkansas State	2383.48	59
65	Nevada	2374.20	64
66	Washington	2368.11	65
67	Purdue	2367.18	69
68	Florida International	2363.87	62
69	Virginia	2363.45	60
70	Air Force	2359.70	68
71	Tennessee	2347.02	71
72	Iowa State	2334.46	67
73	Louisiana-Lafayette	2296.99	76
74	Arizona	2294.74	73
75	Syracuse	2278.20	75
76	Texas Tech	2269.65	77
77	San Diego State	2265.74	74
78	Bowling Green	2230.30	81
79	Boston College	2220.47	78
80	Miami, OH	2219.21	82
81	UCLA	2206.71	80
82	Marshall	2204.35	89
83	East Carolina	2188.74	83
84	Wyoming	2181.59	79
85	UTEP	2172.93	86
86	Hawaii	2170.73	84
87	San Jose State	2165.67	87
88	Washington St.	2156.23	85
89	Western Kentucky	2145.53	88
90	Army	2119.40	90
91	Kentucky	2097.06	92
92	Louisiana-Monroe	2093.73	91
93	Ball State	2077.24	96
94	Maryland	2070.78	93
95	Fresno State	2065.37	94
96	Oregon State	2056.99	97
97	Eastern Michigan	2045.92	98
98	Duke	2045.26	95
99	Kent State	2032.70	100
100	Minnesota	2004.62	99
101	North Texas	1997.15	101
102	Kansas	1953.89	102
103	Central Michigan	1928.46	103
104	Mississippi	1906.57	105
105	Rice	1899.08	107
106	Buffalo	1886.87	106
107	Colorado	1883.29	104
108	Troy	1851.13	108
109	Colorado St.	1842.37	109
110	New Mexico State	1832.59	110
111	Indiana	1805.15	111
112	UAB	1772.91	112
113	Idaho	1749.53	113
114	Tulane	1631.91	114
115	UNLV	1603.61	115
116	Middle Tennessee	1574.12	116
117	Memphis	1492.92	117
118	Akron	1430.98	118
119	Florida Atlantic	1399.51	119
120	New Mexico	1239.87	120

If the game ended now…

At various points in the game, I ‘ll post how the final rankings would appear if the game ended at that point.

2:58 remaining.  Alabama 21, LSU 0.  If the game ends this way, LSU falls to #3.

1	Alabama	3555.66
2	Oklahoma State	3426.34
3	LSU	3422.01

A Couple of FInal Points in Anticipation of the National Championship Game

When I calculated my final regular season standings, LSU came out ahead of Alabama by about 115 points.  Based on my regression analysis of xHPI rankings and outcomes of almost every game played this season (neutral site games are excluded), that difference would be equivalent to a point spread of 3.13 points.  After the results of the first 34 bowl games are included, the difference has grown to 123.28 points, which results in a predicted point spread of 3.34 points.  So while the Las Vegas lines have moved approximately two points in Alabama’s favor, xHPI continues to favor LSU, with the predicted margin of victory growing slightly.

LSU’s lead over #3 Alabama is a fairly large difference for two teams that are separated by only two spots in the rankings.  As a result, Alabama will have to win fairly handily to overtake LSU in the rankings.  Although the way xHPI calculates game results makes it impossible to say what final score would allow Alabama to jump past LSU in the rankings, it appears a result like Arkansas’s victory over Kansas State–a 13-point victory, when it led throughout the game–would be required for Alabama to become xHPI’s national champion.

NFL Power Rankings

My last post alluded to things I was doing with xHPI to pass the time between bowl games.  Below I post the results of one of those things: applying xHPI to the NFL.  I tried this a few years ago with an earlier version of my ranking system, but wasn’t pleased with the results.  The results below may be surprising, but make some sense to me.  Among the noteworthy aspects of these rankings are:

• If the season ended today, Philadelphia, Miami, and San Diego–all teams who have been eliminated from playoff consideration–have high enough ratings to deserve playoff spots.  xHPI rates Philadelphia as the best team in the NFC East, San Diego as the best team in the AFC West, and Miami as an AFC wild card team.
• St. Louis “passed” Indianapolis as the worst team when Indianapolis won its first game.  The gap between the two teams is large enough now that a St. Louis win and and Indianapolis loss in week 17 probably would not change their order.
• The Chiefs, who were very much in the playoff picture until their week 16 loss to Oakland have consistently been near the bottom of the rankings.  Their best ranking was 20th in week 7, when they were 3-3.  Four big losses dragged down their rating significantly.

1	Green Bay	2932.97
2	San Francisco	2808.66
3	New England	2798.23
4	New Orleans	2784.31
5	Baltimore	2698.88
6	Houston	2687.96
7	Pittsburgh	2673.95
8	Philadelphia	2628.70
9	Detroit	2612.06
10	Atlanta	2581.48
11	Miami	2508.70
12	New York Jets	2505.32
13	San Diego	2497.63
14	Dallas	2491.68
15	New York Giants	2430.38
16	Carolina	2417.81
17	Tennessee	2417.55
18	Chicago	2381.56
19	Oakland	2344.59
20	Buffalo	2339.06
21	Denver	2309.63
22	Cincinnati	2282.44
23	Washington	2276.21
24	Seattle	2242.98
25	Arizona	2242.95
26	Minnesota	2192.68
27	Kansas City	2168.33
28	Jacksonville	2167.86
29	Tampa Bay	2023.84
30	Cleveland	1961.59
31	Indianapolis	1918.41
32	St. Louis	1722.20

Strength of Schedule

The bowl schedule, with one or two games a night, gives me time to play around with some xHPI projects.  One of those is calculating strength of schedule for each FBS team.  While strength of schedule is an important part of the xHPI rankings, I’ve never actually ranked the teams’ schedules.  Below are the ten hardest and easiest schedules.  Since eight of the ten hardest schedules belonged to Big 12 teams, it’s apparent that overall, the Big 12 was the hardest conference this season.

Ten Hardest Schedules		Ten Easiest Schedules
1.  Kansas		111.  Temple
2.  Iowa State		112.  Utah State
3.  Oklahoma St.		113.  Louisiana-Lafayette
4.  Notre Dame		114.  Memphis
5.  Mississippi		115.  Ohio
6.  Missouri		116.  Arkansas State
7.  Texas A&M		117.  Hawaii
8.  Texas		118.  Florida International
9.  Oklahoma State		119.  Central Michigan
10.  Kansas State		120.  Miami, OH

2011-2 Bowl Predictions

Below is my list of predictions for all 35 bowl games.  While I’ll be tracking progress against the spread, I listed the predictions without regard to the spread, but with my “confidence level”, which a number of online bowl pools use.

	Bowl	Teams	Prediction	Confidence
12/17	New Orleans	Louisiana-Lafayette vs. San Diego State	San Diego St.	3
12/17	Famous Potatoes	Utah State vs. Ohio	Ohio	15
12/17	New Mexico	Temple vs. Wyoming	Temple	34
12/20	Beef O’Brady’s	Florida International vs. Marshall	FIU	28
12/21	Poinsettia	Louisiana Tech vs. TCU	TCU	22
12/22	Las Vegas	Arizona State vs. Boise State	Boise St.	27
12/24	Hawaii	Nevada vs. Southern Miss.	So. Miss	31
12/26	Independence	North Carolina  vs. Missouri	Missouri	18
12/27	Little Caesar’s	Western Mich. Vs. Purdue	W. Michigan	12
12/27	Belk	Louisville vs. North Carolina State	Louisville	19
12/28	Holiday	California vs. Texas	Texas	16
12/28	Military	Toledo vs. Air Force	Toledo	29
12/29	Champs Sports	Notre Dame vs. Florida State	Florida St.	8
12/29	Alamo	Washington vs. Baylor	Baylor	33
12/30	Music City	Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State	Miss. St.	4
12/30	Armed Forces	Tulsa vs. BYU	Tulsa	9
12/30	Pinstripe	Rutgers vs. Iowa State	Rutgers	30
12/30	Insight	Iowa vs. Oklahoma	Oklahoma	35
12/31	Chick-Fil-A	Virginia vs. Auburn	Virginia	7
12/31	Liberty	Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt	Cincinnati	20
12/31	Meineke Car Care	Texas A&M vs. Northwestern	Texas A&M	32
12/31	Sun	Utah vs. Georgia Tech	Georgia Tech	10
12/31	Kraft Fight Hunger	UCLA vs. Illinois	Illinois	23
1/2	Outback	Michigan St. vs. Georgia	Georgia	2
1/2	Rose	Wisconsin vs. Oregon	Wisconsin	5
1/2	Gator	Florida vs. Ohio State	Ohio St.	13
1/2	Capital One	Nebraska vs. South Carolina	S. Carolina	11
1/2	Ticketcity	Penn State vs. Houston	Houston	21
1/2	Fiesta	Stanford vs. Oklahoma State	Oklahoma St.	26
1/3	Sugar	Michigan vs. Virginia Tech	Michigan	25
1/4	Orange	West Virginia vs. Clemson	Clemson	1
1/6	Cotton	Kansas State vs. Arkansas	Arkansas	6
1/7	BBVA Compass	SMU vs. Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	24
1/8	Go Daddy	Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois	No. Illinois	17
1/9	BCS Championship	Alabama  vs LSU	LSU	14

Rankings as of December 3, 2011

 

With the gap that appeared to be developing between Alabama, last week’s #2 team, and the teams below it, I didn’t think it would be possible for anyone to push them out of the #2 position.  However, Oklahoma State’s victory over Oklahoma was big enough to move them in second place.  xHPI would put them in the title game against LSU.  To see how xHPI would fill out the other BCS games, scroll to the bottom of the rankings.

	Team	Score	LW
1	LSU	3512.03	1
2	Oklahoma State	3428.09	4
3	Alabama	3400.04	2
4	Oklahoma	3173.12	3
5	Stanford	3163.96	6
6	Wisconsin	3153.85	7
7	Oregon	3114.69	8
8	Michigan	3085.82	9
9	USC	3053.57	10
10	Florida State	3007.90	11
11	Boise State	2958.68	5
12	Notre Dame	2947.48	14
13	Texas A&M	2938.51	13
14	South Carolina	2912.79	17
15	Georgia	2909.07	12
16	Michigan St.	2903.15	18
17	Arkansas	2871.45	19
18	Houston	2870.93	15
19	Nebraska	2839.24	21
20	Virginia Tech	2828.66	16
21	Kansas State	2825.55	20
22	Southern Miss.	2812.66	28
23	Baylor	2809.80	25
24	Texas Christian	2791.31	22
25	Clemson	2767.10	36
26	Missouri	2756.62	24
27	Rutgers	2749.88	26
28	West Virginia	2746.38	27
29	Texas	2728.03	23
30	Cincinnati	2724.19	31
31	Temple	2712.41	30
32	Miami, FL	2707.01	29
33	Arizona State	2687.53	32
34	Toledo	2682.15	33
35	Penn State	2678.23	34
36	South Florida	2654.42	35
37	Tulsa	2621.85	37
38	Ohio State	2612.43	38
39	North Carolina	2600.15	39
40	Pittsburgh	2590.07	43
41	California	2588.06	40
42	Iowa	2585.32	41
43	Northern Illinois	2583.72	51
44	Louisville	2572.54	42
45	Louisiana Tech	2571.56	44
46	Georgia Tech	2556.28	45
47	BYU	2552.95	47
48	Vanderbilt	2552.76	46
49	Mississippi State	2512.55	48
50	Northwestern	2510.55	50
51	Florida	2499.02	49
52	Wake Forest	2490.24	52
53	Utah	2487.72	53
54	Ohio	2469.37	56
55	Illinois	2468.56	55
56	Central Florida	2458.84	58
57	Western Mich.	2452.03	57
58	Connecticut	2443.38	54
59	Arkansas State	2429.61	62
60	Virginia	2428.36	59
61	North Carolina St.	2416.97	61
62	Florida International	2414.91	60
63	Navy	2384.86	64
64	Nevada	2380.44	72
65	Washington	2377.17	63
66	Auburn	2368.61	66
67	Air Force	2362.73	65
68	Iowa State	2359.67	69
69	Purdue	2356.07	67
70	SMU	2342.72	71
71	Tennessee	2337.90	70
72	Utah State	2336.43	68
73	Arizona	2306.73	74
74	San Diego State	2302.18	75
75	Syracuse	2286.97	73
76	Louisiana-Lafayette	2285.92	77
77	Texas Tech	2262.59	76
78	Boston College	2251.07	78
79	Wyoming	2231.69	79
80	UCLA	2225.26	81
81	Bowling Green	2220.49	80
82	Miami, OH	2215.26	82
83	East Carolina	2189.56	83
84	Hawaii	2175.05	84
85	Washington St.	2173.48	85
86	San Jose State	2166.08	86
87	UTEP	2164.70	88
88	Western Kentucky	2161.56	87
89	Marshall	2141.37	89
90	Louisiana-Monroe	2106.11	95
91	Army	2102.34	90
92	Kentucky	2102.15	91
93	Maryland	2083.22	94
94	Fresno State	2080.65	92
95	Duke	2074.83	93
96	Ball State	2074.34	96
97	Oregon State	2069.05	97
98	Eastern Michigan	2041.90	98
99	Minnesota	2034.65	99
100	Kent State	2016.24	100
101	North Texas	1998.27	103
102	Kansas	1943.37	101
103	Central Michigan	1923.12	102
104	Colorado	1904.44	104
105	Mississippi	1893.22	105
106	Buffalo	1885.42	107
107	Rice	1879.68	106
108	Troy	1858.19	108
109	Colorado St.	1855.38	109
110	New Mexico State	1837.98	112
111	Indiana	1825.75	111
112	UAB	1764.53	113
113	Idaho	1755.25	110
114	Tulane	1627.06	116
115	UNLV	1619.05	115
116	Middle Tennessee	1582.24	114
117	Memphis	1485.69	117
118	Akron	1430.18	119
119	Florida Atlantic	1399.03	118
120	New Mexico	1247.92	120

I tried to follow the rules for BCS bowl matchups as well as I could understand them.  For my purposes, the “champion” of each automatic qualifier (AQ) conference is the team from that conference that is ranked the highest.  My pairings are going to be quite a bit different from the actual matchups announced this evening.

BCS Championship:  LSU vs. Oklahoma State

Orange Bowl:  Florida State vs.  Rutgers

Sugar Bowl:  Boise State vs. Oregon

Fiesta Bowl:  Oklahoma vs. Alabama

Rose Bowl:  Stanford vs. Wisconsin