Rankings through October 18, 2014

Rank Team Score LW
1 Mississippi 3691.84 2
2 Auburn 3686.01 1
3 Mississippi State 3489.60 4
4 Alabama 3417.90 7
5 Georgia 3393.06 5
6 Oklahoma 3288.62 3
7 Notre Dame 3220.18 6
8 Ohio State 3195.58 14
9 Marshall 3145.79 16
10 Oregon 3127.82 9
11 USC 3118.13 15
12 Clemson 3117.36 10
13 Texas Christian 3090.74 18
14 Michigan St. 3056.48 21
15 Florida State 3052.29 12
16 Baylor 3013.93 8
17 LSU 2996.03 29
18 Nebraska 2988.90 26
19 Arkansas 2987.82 11
20 Arizona State 2985.56 28
21 Kansas State 2972.97 23
22 Utah 2946.97 22
23 Miami, FL 2946.38 17
24 UCLA 2938.08 25
25 Arizona 2931.78 24
26 West Virginia 2918.41 37
27 Louisville 2871.16 32
28 Virginia Tech 2864.38 35
29 Minnesota 2826.36 76
30 Stanford 2815.67 13
31 Wisconsin 2808.81 33
32 Memphis 2808.36 41
33 Duke 2805.21 31
34 Georgia Tech 2784.13 30
35 Boston College 2765.50 34
36 Missouri 2750.49 59
37 BYU 2749.17 38
38 Maryland 2740.98 43
39 Tennessee 2738.75 19
40 Pittsburgh 2738.11 61
41 Colorado State 2732.06 48
42 Georgia Southern 2704.76 42
43 Virginia 2671.89 47
44 East Carolina 2671.53 46
45 Texas A&M 2661.84 20
46 Boise State 2649.44 60
47 Iowa 2649.00 44
48 Penn State 2646.94 51
49 South Carolina 2633.78 50
50 Washington 2621.23 39
51 Oklahoma State 2617.67 36
52 Northwestern 2603.75 49
53 Florida 2602.39 27
54 Air Force 2587.07 55
55 California 2584.94 54
56 Rutgers 2570.02 40
57 Houston 2557.58 71
58 Oregon State 2556.06 53
59 Nevada 2553.84 63
60 Arkansas State 2543.32 62
61 Central Florida 2539.78 64
62 Middle Tenneseee 2505.10 65
63 Utah State 2503.77 56
64 Kentucky 2498.20 45
65 UAB 2495.83 57
66 Louisiana Tech 2487.38 73
67 Texas 2475.54 66
68 Temple 2458.39 52
69 North Carolina 2455.19 74
70 Navy 2417.55 67
71 Western Kentucky 2410.58 58
72 Washington State 2406.12 68
73 North Carolina State 2395.39 69
74 Western Michigan 2377.47 78
75 Michigan 2368.12 75
76 Syracuse 2361.79 80
77 San Diego State 2345.82 88
78 Purdue 2317.70 84
79 Akron 2306.34 70
80 Cincinnati 2304.21 81
81 Toledo 2279.84 82
82 South Alabama 2278.45 91
83 Indiana 2267.02 79
84 Texas-San Antonio 2266.37 86
85 Texas Tech 2258.80 87
86 San Jose State 2245.14 93
87 Colorado 2236.46 77
88 Northern Illinois 2222.91 92
89 Bowling Green 2210.74 83
90 Iowa State 2189.93 94
91 Illinois 2177.18 89
92 Florida International 2172.69 85
93 Central Michigan 2172.20 95
94 Texas State 2167.81 72
95 Rice 2158.31 90
96 Louisiana-Lafayette 2158.04 104
97 Fresno State 2142.09 98
98 Hawaii 2065.16 96
99 South Florida 2062.14 100
100 New Mexico 2055.60 102
101 Old Dominion 2051.46 99
102 UTEP 2018.98 101
103 Ball State 2006.49 113
104 Massachusetts 1970.25 109
105 Florida Atlantic 1967.90 115
106 Ohio 1964.45 114
107 Army 1963.30 97
108 Tulane 1959.47 103
109 Buffalo 1949.99 106
110 Southern Mississippi 1911.76 116
111 Wake Forest 1908.28 105
112 Appalachian State 1907.98 120
113 Miami, OH 1888.31 110
114 Louisiana-Monroe 1886.05 107
115 Kansas 1877.94 108
116 Vanderbilt 1842.04 112
117 New Mexico State 1816.16 117
118 North Texas 1780.86 111
119 Georgia State 1780.25 118
120 UNLV 1767.49 121
121 Idaho 1744.47 124
122 Connecticut 1743.35 119
123 Tulsa 1700.18 122
124 Wyoming 1643.50 125
125 Kent State 1605.57 127
126 Troy 1538.30 123
127 Eastern Michigan 1481.87 126
128 SMU 1047.07 128
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Rankings through October 11, 2014

Rank Team Score LW
1 Auburn 3638.82 1
2 Mississippi 3484.04 2
3 Oklahoma 3466.91 3
4 Mississippi State 3411.27 5
5 Georgia 3381.42 10
6 Notre Dame 3298.35 4
7 Alabama 3244.61 7
8 Baylor 3192.09 9
9 Oregon 3101.44 15
10 Clemson 3096.68 18
11 Arkansas 3092.93 8
12 Florida State 3083.49 12
13 Stanford 3074.65 20
14 Ohio State 3067.41 6
15 USC 3062.98 19
16 Marshall 3057.93 21
17 Miami, FL 2997.87 23
18 Texas Christian 2986.03 13
19 Tennessee 2973.54 36
20 Texas A&M 2969.78 14
21 Michigan St. 2961.97 24
22 Utah 2955.91 17
23 Kansas State 2918.18 31
24 Arizona 2910.57 22
25 UCLA 2897.18 11
26 Nebraska 2897.01 25
27 Florida 2870.56 37
28 Arizona State 2866.12 34
29 LSU 2864.66 40
30 Georgia Tech 2852.37 16
31 Duke 2840.08 50
32 Louisville 2824.03 28
33 Wisconsin 2817.28 38
34 Boston College 2814.85 51
35 Virginia Tech 2810.36 44
36 Oklahoma State 2808.00 35
37 West Virginia 2784.48 30
38 BYU 2767.81 29
39 Washington 2762.90 53
40 Rutgers 2761.69 43
41 Memphis 2759.93 26
42 Georgia Southern 2726.82 41
43 Maryland 2726.04 47
44 Iowa 2725.15 55
45 Kentucky 2721.66 52
46 East Carolina 2707.49 48
47 Virginia 2695.20 42
48 Colorado State 2687.93 64
49 Northwestern 2671.00 39
50 South Carolina 2669.78 54
51 Penn State 2664.43 46
52 Temple 2654.06 45
53 Oregon State 2651.86 57
54 California 2622.15 27
55 Air Force 2612.00 33
56 Utah State 2603.41 65
57 UAB 2602.33 58
58 Western Kentucky 2594.81 61
59 Missouri 2585.48 32
60 Boise State 2576.59 56
61 Pittsburgh 2574.50 60
62 Arkansas State 2541.03 71
63 Nevada 2524.10 49
64 Central Florida 2482.15 72
65 Middle Tenneseee 2456.57 63
66 Texas 2453.15 68
67 Navy 2451.82 66
68 Washington State 2432.56 59
69 North Carolina State 2432.34 62
70 Akron 2411.67 70
71 Houston 2383.79 84
72 Texas State 2379.54 74
73 Louisiana Tech 2354.87 69
74 North Carolina 2340.35 78
75 Michigan 2339.77 87
76 Minnesota 2307.77 96
77 Colorado 2298.57 81
78 Western Michigan 2291.19 75
79 Indiana 2261.23 67
80 Syracuse 2257.03 77
81 Cincinnati 2256.26 80
82 Toledo 2253.19 76
83 Bowling Green 2251.16 82
84 Purdue 2248.25 86
85 Florida International 2234.46 85
86 Texas-San Antonio 2231.25 92
87 Texas Tech 2227.67 91
88 San Diego State 2222.03 98
89 Illinois 2221.43 90
90 Rice 2200.41 93
91 South Alabama 2188.65 79
92 Northern Illinois 2176.11 73
93 San Jose State 2169.02 88
94 Iowa State 2163.82 99
95 Central Michigan 2163.42 101
96 Hawaii 2152.12 105
97 Army 2100.08 83
98 Fresno State 2094.70 89
99 Old Dominion 2069.76 94
100 South Florida 2043.69 97
101 UTEP 2029.95 112
102 New Mexico 2011.04 95
103 Tulane 1994.03 119
104 Louisiana-Lafayette 1983.59 100
105 Wake Forest 1980.86 106
106 Buffalo 1950.25 102
107 Louisiana-Monroe 1942.20 104
108 Kansas 1921.10 113
109 Massachusetts 1919.89 121
110 Miami, OH 1906.19 110
111 North Texas 1872.11 103
112 Vanderbilt 1870.06 120
113 Ball State 1860.15 117
114 Ohio 1850.26 109
115 Florida Atlantic 1828.03 118
116 Southern Mississippi 1813.67 114
117 New Mexico State 1811.91 107
118 Georgia State 1772.17 111
119 Connecticut 1767.85 116
120 Appalachian State 1756.15 115
121 UNLV 1739.97 123
122 Tulsa 1676.39 122
123 Troy 1639.39 126
124 Idaho 1595.59 124
125 Wyoming 1592.75 108
126 Eastern Michigan 1549.57 127
127 Kent State 1382.48 125
128 SMU 1075.37 128
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Rankings Through 10/4/2014

Rank Team Score LW
1 Auburn 3890.09 1
2 Mississippi 3548.65 6
3 Oklahoma 3516.30 2
4 Notre Dame 3352.92 7
5 Mississippi State 3220.17 11
6 Ohio State 3216.42 23
7 Alabama 3204.12 3
8 Arkansas 3196.61 10
9 Baylor 3183.95 31
10 Georgia 3177.99 9
11 UCLA 3143.65 4
12 Florida State 3109.60 16
13 Texas Christian 3092.33 35
14 Texas A&M 3088.39 12
15 Oregon 3054.58 8
16 Georgia Tech 3052.16 28
17 Utah 3021.74 39
18 Clemson 2994.30 50
19 USC 2991.92 13
20 Stanford 2988.25 15
21 Marshall 2983.44 24
22 Arizona 2961.55 26
23 Miami, FL 2953.13 17
24 Michigan St. 2942.19 42
25 Nebraska 2939.86 18
26 Memphis 2926.52 36
27 California 2905.75 33
28 Louisville 2905.06 43
29 BYU 2890.19 5
30 West Virginia 2886.67 25
31 Kansas State 2885.94 38
32 Missouri 2878.70 30
33 Air Force 2872.21 46
34 Arizona State 2847.21 48
35 Oklahoma State 2845.95 29
36 Tennessee 2830.04 49
37 Florida 2826.24 41
38 Wisconsin 2820.19 20
39 Northwestern 2812.10 60
40 LSU 2804.96 22
41 Georgia Southern 2795.28 14
42 Virginia 2790.81 53
43 Rutgers 2790.60 34
44 Virginia Tech 2775.12 54
45 Temple 2751.32 40
46 Penn State 2749.79 37
47 Maryland 2743.85 19
48 East Carolina 2708.58 21
49 Nevada 2707.34 32
50 Duke 2688.34 45
51 Boston College 2681.92 44
52 Kentucky 2674.45 52
53 Washington 2625.41 47
54 South Carolina 2588.85 51
55 Iowa 2574.58 59
56 Boise State 2574.34 63
57 Oregon State 2566.94 56
58 UAB 2554.14 68
59 Washington State 2537.17 64
60 Pittsburgh 2536.05 57
61 Western Kentucky 2535.37 58
62 North Carolina State 2529.98 27
63 Middle Tenneseee 2509.54 61
64 Colorado State 2498.96 67
65 Utah State 2468.08 88
66 Navy 2431.60 62
67 Indiana 2418.57 78
68 Texas 2403.18 55
69 Louisiana Tech 2402.91 90
70 Akron 2367.19 71
71 Arkansas State 2357.10 80
72 Central Florida 2343.24 86
73 Northern Illinois 2333.58 66
74 Texas State 2328.08 75
75 Western Michigan 2310.42 77
76 Toledo 2292.14 81
77 Syracuse 2285.82 74
78 North Carolina 2279.63 72
79 South Alabama 2276.15 93
80 Cincinnati 2270.40 65
81 Colorado 2259.46 73
82 Bowling Green 2247.37 85
83 Army 2221.25 112
84 Houston 2218.31 69
85 Florida International 2205.74 92
86 Purdue 2204.40 99
87 Michigan 2201.96 84
88 San Jose State 2162.42 104
89 Fresno State 2156.02 98
90 Illinois 2136.51 82
91 Texas Tech 2127.73 70
92 Texas-San Antonio 2111.20 76
93 Rice 2108.15 107
94 Old Dominion 2087.08 79
95 New Mexico 2086.63 113
96 Minnesota 2083.79 91
97 South Florida 2082.39 87
98 San Diego State 2061.78 83
99 Iowa State 2046.77 94
100 Louisiana-Lafayette 2027.74 114
101 Central Michigan 2019.54 109
102 Buffalo 1998.27 97
103 North Texas 1994.33 103
104 Louisiana-Monroe 1975.25 95
105 Hawaii 1973.66 96
106 Wake Forest 1966.89 101
107 New Mexico State 1961.45 111
108 Wyoming 1953.18 102
109 Ohio 1938.82 105
110 Miami, OH 1910.59 118
111 Georgia State 1899.68 110
112 UTEP 1898.16 89
113 Kansas 1852.34 117
114 Southern Mississippi 1825.21 119
115 Appalachian State 1824.58 106
116 Connecticut 1817.80 115
117 Ball State 1816.86 100
118 Florida Atlantic 1813.82 108
119 Tulane 1800.63 120
120 Vanderbilt 1778.80 116
121 Massachusetts 1767.26 122
122 Tulsa 1602.64 121
123 UNLV 1595.04 123
124 Idaho 1516.37 125
125 Kent State 1422.82 127
126 Troy 1375.34 124
127 Eastern Michigan 1346.09 126
128 SMU 1085.45 128
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Rankings through September 27, 2014

Rank Team Score
1 Auburn 3685.80
2 Oklahoma 3574.78
3 Alabama 3431.98
4 UCLA 3415.17
5 BYU 3413.12
6 Mississippi 3407.89
7 Notre Dame 3325.77
8 Oregon 3217.89
9 Georgia 3216.00
10 Arkansas 3183.14
11 Mississippi State 3153.69
12 Texas A&M 3147.31
13 USC 3104.30
14 Georgia Southern 3096.28
15 Stanford 3083.57
16 Florida State 3081.41
17 Miami, FL 3062.29
18 Nebraska 3048.84
19 Maryland 3033.00
20 Wisconsin 3029.117758
21 East Carolina 3001.97
22 LSU 2993.59
23 Ohio State 2982.52
24 Marshall 2974.02
25 West Virginia 2947.29
26 Arizona 2945.95
27 North Carolina State 2925.58
28 Georgia Tech 2908.33
29 Oklahoma State 2887.88
30 Missouri 2882.56
31 Baylor 2855.95
32 Nevada 2832.61
33 California 2832.56
34 Rutgers 2819.64
35 Texas Christian 2809.18
36 Memphis 2805.01
37 Penn State 2801.58
38 Kansas State 2798.20
39 Utah 2783.43
40 Temple 2753.29
41 Florida 2739.66
42 Michigan St. 2729.50
43 Louisville 2726.13
44 Boston College 2705.77
45 Duke 2699.63
46 Air Force 2684.61
47 Washington 2661.19
48 Arizona State 2646.72
49 Tennessee 2645.46
50 Clemson 2635.75
51 South Carolina 2635.35
52 Kentucky 2635.13
53 Virginia 2635.10
54 Virginia Tech 2629.11
55 Texas 2625.03
56 Oregon State 2624.18
57 Pittsburgh 2612.66
58 Western Kentucky 2607.44
59 Iowa 2606.73
60 Northwestern 2599.50
61 Middle Tenneseee 2593.80
62 Navy 2560.52
63 Boise State 2509.09
64 Washington State 2500.83
65 Cincinnati 2492.95
66 Northern Illinois 2460.56
67 Colorado State 2457.48
68 UAB 2448.90
69 Houston 2440.64
70 Texas Tech 2388.89
71 Akron 2383.77
72 North Carolina 2352.08
73 Colorado 2344.29
74 Syracuse 2341.75
75 Texas State 2329.07
76 Texas-San Antonio 2324.76
77 Western Michigan 2320.40
78 Indiana 2316.86
79 Old Dominion 2313.87
80 Arkansas State 2304.99
81 Toledo 2272.12
82 Illinois 2254.65
83 San Diego State 2247.97
84 Michigan 2243.63
85 Bowling Green 2222.91
86 Central Florida 2182.29
87 South Florida 2181.53
88 Utah State 2175.26
89 UTEP 2160.97
90 Louisiana Tech 2151.72
91 Minnesota 2143.58
92 Florida International 2128.74
93 South Alabama 2124.23
94 Iowa State 2104.44
95 Louisiana-Monroe 2092.27
96 Hawaii 2070.05
97 Buffalo 2063.60
98 Fresno State 2049.76
99 Purdue 2033.15
100 Ball State 2014.91
101 Wake Forest 2010.29
102 Wyoming 1997.651338
103 North Texas 1993.78
104 San Jose State 1987.73
105 Ohio 1979.65
106 Appalachian State 1969.68
107 Rice 1951.39
108 Florida Atlantic 1950.77
109 Central Michigan 1946.74
110 Georgia State 1923.26
111 New Mexico State 1915.04
112 Army 1912.19
113 New Mexico 1862.47
114 Louisiana-Lafayette 1849.90
115 Connecticut 1844.66
116 Vanderbilt 1842.46
117 Kansas 1841.32
118 Miami, OH 1830.62
119 Southern Mississippi 1798.56
120 Tulane 1784.43
121 Tulsa 1703.87
122 Massachusetts 1690.63
123 UNLV 1666.78
124 Troy 1392.53
125 Idaho 1367.63
126 Eastern Michigan 1343.75
127 Kent State 1271.87
128 SMU 894.56
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Final 2013-14 Rankings

Team Score Prev.
1 Florida State 3682.43 1
2 Alabama 3442.72 2
3 Stanford 3251.55 3
4 Missouri 3211.72 5
5 Auburn 3209.22 6
6 Oregon 3142.84 11
7 Baylor 3128.29 4
8 Oklahoma State 3111.32 8
9 Ohio State 3083.41 7
10 South Carolina 3068.06 13
11 Michigan St. 3044.81 12
12 Arizona State 3037.74 10
13 LSU 3032.85 14
14 Wisconsin 3002.66 9
15 UCLA 2992.95 18
16 Washington 2979.71 15
17 USC 2975.57 19
18 Louisville 2957.53 17
19 Clemson 2945.33 16
20 Oklahoma 2905.90 23
21 Georgia 2857.65 20
22 Central Florida 2816.95 28
23 Texas A&M 2815.40 27
24 Notre Dame 2811.59 25
25 Georgia Tech 2808.13 22
26 BYU 2798.49 21
27 Arizona 2772.46 31
28 Mississippi State 2757.75 39
29 Duke 2742.29 29
30 Virginia Tech 2741.53 24
31 Kansas State 2726.30 40
32 North Carolina 2722.69 34
33 Mississippi 2708.50 42
34 Miami, FL 2703.82 26
35 Utah State 2693.99 35
36 Iowa 2664.09 30
37 Utah 2663.65 41
38 Bowling Green 2646.22 36
39 Fresno State 2633.54 37
40 East Carolina 2628.36 43
41 Vanderbilt 2620.86 46
42 Houston 2617.81 32
43 Texas 2611.19 38
44 Michigan 2604.67 33
45 Navy 2597.11 44
46 Texas Tech 2580.99 56
47 Nebraska 2557.43 52
48 Marshall 2550.04 47
49 Pittsburgh 2549.06 53
50 Oregon State 2542.48 59
51 Washington St. 2529.01 48
52 North Texas 2510.02 55
53 Penn State 2499.30 49
54 Boise State 2469.38 51
55 Rice 2460.30 45
56 Florida 2454.68 60
57 Cincinnati 2452.12 50
58 Minnesota 2448.35 54
59 Northern Illinois 2436.07 57
60 South Alabama 2421.85 64
61 Ball State 2413.06 58
62 Tennessee 2405.92 65
63 Indiana 2400.83 62
64 Western Kentucky 2399.20 67
65 Syracuse 2399.17 69
66 Tulane 2388.21 63
67 Boston College 2388.14 61
68 Louisiana-Lafayette 2367.31 73
69 Toledo 2355.21 68
70 Northwestern 2334.34 70
71 Maryland 2328.14 71
72 Texas San Antonio 2319.20 72
73 Texas Christian 2296.53 74
74 Buffalo 2282.97 66
75 Colorado St. 2279.95 76
76 Arkansas State 2267.85 77
77 Florida Atlantic 2250.37 75
78 San Diego State 2197.51 86
79 UNLV 2194.88 78
80 Nevada 2189.88 79
81 Troy 2172.16 83
82 Arkansas 2167.54 84
83 West Virginia 2164.85 82
84 Rutgers 2164.81 80
85 Illinois 2140.93 81
86 San Jose State 2127.90 89
87 Memphis 2123.72 87
88 Wake Forest 2121.99 88
89 Middle Tennessee 2105.61 85
90 Old Dominion 2099.20 91
91 Ohio 2086.40 90
92 North Carolina St. 2083.06 92
93 Virginia 2059.32 96
94 Temple 2055.16 93
95 SMU 2054.10 94
96 Iowa State 2051.94 95
97 Louisiana-Monroe 2040.98 98
98 Kent State 2017.68 97
99 Wyoming 1997.65 99
100 Texas St. San Marcos 1985.00 103
101 Army 1976.56 101
102 Akron 1970.06 100
103 Connecticut 1957.68 102
104 Hawaii 1935.20 104
105 Central Michigan 1894.20 105
106 Tulsa 1887.83 106
107 New Mexico 1867.97 107
108 California 1841.08 109
109 South Florida 1839.00 108
110 Air Force 1825.72 111
111 Kentucky 1821.73 112
112 Kansas 1813.46 110
113 Louisiana Tech 1772.83 113
114 UAB 1760.31 114
115 Colorado 1735.30 116
116 Purdue 1701.92 115
117 New Mexico State 1612.04 117
118 Georgia State 1592.66 118
119 Western Mich. 1549.48 119
120 UTEP 1546.71 120
121 Idaho 1518.98 121
122 Eastern Michigan 1453.70 122
123 Massachusetts 1445.08 123
124 Southern Miss. 1391.04 124
125 Miami, OH 1358.33 125
126 Florida International 1246.76 126
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National Championship Game Scenarios

During tonight’s game I’ll be how the standings would look if the game ended at various points. I don’t expect this to demonstrate very much change, because Florida State’s lead is so large that I’m not sure any result can shake them out of the national championship.

Here’s how the top 10 looked at the end of the regular season:

1 Florida State 3716.42
2 Alabama 3525.58
3 Stanford 3275.68
4 Baylor 3189.82
5 Missouri 3167.01
6 Auburn 3162.06
7 Ohio State 3145.27
8 Oklahoma State 3131.96
9 Arizona State 3087.67
10 Wisconsin 3087.30

Florida State’s lead over Auburn was 554.36 points. That’s a deficit that will be extremely hard, if not impossible, to overcome.

The third quarter pretty much doomed Auburn’s chances to pass Alabama, let alone win the national championship.

1 Florida State 3623.50
2 Alabama 3453.07
3 Auburn 3270.31
4 Stanford 3252.80
5 Missouri 3218.37
6 Oregon 3145.17
7 Baylor 3128.29
8 Oklahoma State 3113.36
9 Ohio State 3082.94
10 South Carolina 3071.51

Since other games affect a team’s score, I re-checked the standings. The strong showing by SEC teams helped to narrow the gap, but only slightly, to 528.39 points.

1 Florida State 3715.72
2 Alabama 3447.15
3 Stanford 3252.71
4 Missouri 3214.01
5 Auburn 3187.34
6 Oregon 3144.99
7 Baylor 3128.29
8 Oklahoma State 3113.21
9 Ohio State 3083.41
10 South Carolina 3072.43

At the end of the first quarter, Auburn led 7-3. An Auburn victory would narrow the gap, but it is still going to take a blowout for Auburn to catch Florida State. Auburn would gain several slots in the rankings, however, to #3.

1 Florida State 3638.24
2 Alabama 3451.99
3 Auburn 3255.79
4 Stanford 3252.80
5 Missouri 3217.43
6 Oregon 3145.17
7 Baylor 3128.29
8 Oklahoma State 3113.36
9 Ohio State 3082.94
10 South Carolina 3071.51

Auburn extends its lead in the second quarter, and reduces the gap further. Still, the difference is more than 288 points, which is Auburn probably can’t overcome, given xHPI’s formula. In fact, it will even be difficult for Auburn to pass Alabama and move into second.

1 Florida State 3590.34
2 Alabama 3455.48
3 Auburn 3302.01
4 Stanford 3252.80
5 Missouri 3220.47
6 Oregon 3145.17
7 Baylor 3128.29
8 Oklahoma State 3113.36
9 Ohio State 3082.94
10 South Carolina 3071.51
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2013-14 Bowl Picks

As I did last year, I’m posting xHPI’s bowl picks. These are confidence ratings, using xHPI’s predicted outcomes for each games to determine the level of confidence of each pick, ranking them from 35 (most confident) to 1 (least confident). In past years, xHPI has performed very well, usually finishing near the top 5% of all picks on ESPN’s College Bowl Mania game.

Predictions are based on a formula determined by running a regression analysis of margin of victory against the relative difference of each team’s xHPI score. This analysis yields an equation that allows the ratings to be converted into scores, with the y intercept of the equation serving as a home field advantage. This equation is applied to each bowl paring (with a determination of whether a full or partial home field advantage or none at all). The results are ranked from highest to lowest predicted margin of victory to produce confidence rankings. For the record, the difference between the two teams’ scores is multiplied by .0283 to convert to points, and xHPI’s current home field advantage is 3.5629 points added to the home team’s score.

This year, I’ve added a twist: I’ve created my own group in the Bowl Mania game, and I’m inviting readers of this blog to compare their picks to xHPI’s. The group is called xHPI Readers, and you can join it by clicking here.

Or, if you want to use xHPI as a resource to amuse, amaze, and beat your friends or co-workers, all of xHPI’s confidence picks are presented below.

Date

Bowl

xHPI’s Pick

Opponent

Confidence

Dec. 21

New Mexico

Washington St.

Colorado State

22

Dec. 21

Las Vegas

USC

Fresno State

15

Dec. 21

Idaho Potatoes

Buffalo

San Diego St.

21

Dec. 21

New Orleans

Tulane

Louisiana-Lafayette

10

Dec. 23

Beef O’Brady’s

East Carolina

Ohio

31

Dec. 24

Hawaii

Boise State

Oregon State

5

Dec. 26

Little Caesar’s

Bowling Green

Pittsburgh

18

Dec. 26

Poinsettia

Utah State

Northern Illinois

14

Dec. 27

Military

Marshall

Maryland

6

Dec. 27

Texas

Minnesota

Syracuse

12

Dec. 27

Fight Hunger

Washington

BYU

3

Dec. 28

Pinstripe

Notre Dame

Rutgers

33

Dec. 28

Belk

North Carolina

Cincinnati

26

Dec. 28

Florida Citrus

Louisville

Miami, FL

1

Dec. 28

Buffalo Wild Wings

Michigan

Kansas State

4

Dec. 30

Armed Forces

Navy

Middle Tennessee

28

Dec. 30

Music City

Georgia Tech

Mississippi

19

Dec. 30

Alamo

Oregon

Texas

24

Dec. 30

Holiday

Arizona State

Texas Tech

34

Dec. 31

Advocare V100

Arizona

Boston College

25

Dec. 31

Sun

UCLA

Virginia Tech

9

Dec. 31

Liberty

Mississippi State

Rice

11

Dec. 31

Chick-Fil-A

Texas A&M

Duke

7

Jan. 1

Gator

Georgia

Nebraska

30

Jan. 1

Heart of Dallas

North Texas

UNLV

27

Jan. 1

Outback

LSU

Iowa

23

Jan. 1

Capital One

Wisconsin

South Carolina

8

Jan. 1

Rose

Stanford

Michigan State

16

Jan. 1

Fiesta

Baylor

Central Florida

29

Jan. 2

Sugar

Alabama

Oklahoma

35

Jan. 3

Cotton

Missouri

Oklahoma State

2

Jan. 3

Orange

Ohio State

Clemson

16

Jan. 4

BBVA Compass

Houston

Vanderbilt

13

Jan. 5

GoDaddy

Ball State

Arkansas State

20

Jan. 6

BCS Championship

Florida State

Auburn

32

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