11/24 Performance and 12/1 Predictions

xHPI continued its relatively strong performance finishing five games above .500 against the spread, having another strong week on all games, and finishing above .500 on its best bets.  The worst performance was on the “alternate” best bets, where xHPI finished exactly .500.

Last Week Percentage Season Percentage
Against the Spread 30-25-2 54.5% 257-230-8 52.8%
Straight-Up 45-12 78.9% 375-119 75.9%
Best Bets 3-2 60.0% 24-21 53.3%
Alt. Best Bets 3-3 50.0% 18-9 66.7%

I will continue to track xHPI vs. the alternate version that excludes the results of games against non-FBS teams.  The results remain mixed.

Last Week Percent Season Percent Week Diff. from Score Season Diff. from Score
xHPI 30-25-2 54.5% 85-75-6 53.1% 10.17 11.34
Alt. HPI 31-24-2 56.4% 82-78-6 51.3% 9.91 11.41

With only 18 games on the schedule, there is some overlap between the best bets and the alternate best bets.  Here are the best bets:

South Alabama (+6) over Hawaii
Alabama (-7) over Georgia
Cincinnati (-4.5) over Connecticut
Louisiana-Lafayette (-9) over Florida Atlantic
Nebraska (-3) over Wisconsin

And the alternate best bets:

Louisiana-Lafayette (-9) over Florida Atlantic
Nebraska (-3) over Wisconsin
Kent State (+6.5) vs. Northern Illinois
Stanford (-8) over UCLA
Oklahoma State (-4) over Baylor
TCU (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma
Kansas (+20) vs. West Virginia

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