Predictions for December 3, 2011

Since there are relatively few games this weekend, I’ve decided to post xHPI’s predictions for every game.  Best Bets are indicated in bold.

Favorite	Underdog	Spread	xHPI Pick	xHPI vs. Spread
West Virginia	at South Florida	2	South Florida	South Florida
Northern Illinois	Ohio	3.5	Northern Illinois	Ohio
at Oregon	UCLA	31	Oregon	UCLA
at Cincinnati	Connecticut	9	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
at Ptttsburgh	Syracuse	10	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
at Houston	Southern Miss	13	Houston	Southern Miss
at Kansas State	Iowa State	10.5	Kansas State	Kansas State
Wyoming	Colorado State	5.5	Colorado State	Colorado State
at TCU	UNLV	38.5	TCU	UNLV
at Baylor	Texas	2.5	Baylor	Baylor
Utah State	at New Mexico St.	14.5	Utah State	New Mexico St.
Louisiana-Monroe	at Florida Atlantic	7.5	La.-Monroe	La.-Monroe
at North Texas	Middle Tennessee	5.5	North Texas	North Texas
at Nevada	Idaho	19.5	Nevada	Idaho
LSU	Georgia	13	LSU	LSU
at Arkansas State	Troy	17	Arkansas St.	Arkansas St.
at Boise State	New Mexico	48.5	Boise State	Boise State
BYU	at Hawaii	8	BYU	Hawaii
at Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma	3.5	Oklahoma St.	Oklahoma
at San Diego St.	Fresno State	8	San Diego St.	San Diego St.
Wisconsin	Michigan St.	9.5	Wisconsin	Michigan State
Virginia	Clemson	6.5	Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech

Rankings as of November 26, 2011

	Team	Score	LW
1	LSU	3468.72	1
2	Alabama	3394.14	2
3	Oklahoma	3323.45	3
4	Oklahoma State	3302.20	4
5	Boise State	3221.62	5
6	Stanford	3175.24	8
7	Wisconsin	3170.04	9
8	Oregon	3143.95	7
9	Michigan	3091.75	6
10	USC	3065.66	13
11	Florida State	3013.15	11
12	Georgia	2969.35	14
13	Texas A&M	2957.51	12
14	Notre Dame	2946.94	10
15	Houston	2935.57	17
16	Virginia Tech	2922.19	18
17	South Carolina	2907.01	22
18	Michigan St.	2902.68	19
19	Arkansas	2875.08	15
20	Kansas State	2860.97	16
21	Nebraska	2837.26	29
22	Texas Christian	2799.96	21
23	Texas	2792.98	27
24	Missouri	2769.82	25
25	Baylor	2766.62	26
26	Rutgers	2750.44	20
27	West Virginia	2742.82	31
28	Southern Miss.	2738.97	28
29	Miami, FL	2717.86	24
30	Temple	2712.82	32
31	Cincinnati	2698.60	36
32	Arizona State	2694.75	30
33	Toledo	2694.46	37
34	Penn State	2678.87	23
35	South Florida	2671.49	33
36	Clemson	2660.17	34
37	Tulsa	2633.55	35
38	Ohio State	2614.22	42
39	North Carolina	2608.23	39
40	California	2587.94	50
41	Iowa	2585.09	38
42	Louisville	2582.68	51
43	Pittsburgh	2574.11	45
44	Louisiana Tech	2570.99	52
45	Georgia Tech	2567.37	40
46	Vanderbilt	2563.50	57
47	BYU	2561.16	47
48	Mississippi State	2516.74	58
49	Florida	2512.27	49
50	Northwestern	2511.71	48
51	Northern Illinois	2498.12	53
52	Wake Forest	2490.66	41
53	Utah	2489.29	46
54	Connecticut	2482.10	65
55	Illinois	2469.34	43
56	Ohio	2461.65	54
57	Western Mich.	2457.26	55
58	Central Florida	2456.02	63
59	Virginia	2433.32	44
60	Florida International	2420.26	59
61	North Carolina St.	2407.03	56
62	Arkansas State	2402.39	60
63	Washington	2380.42	74
64	Navy	2375.53	67
65	Air Force	2371.51	70
66	Auburn	2369.66	64
67	Purdue	2366.05	66
68	Utah State	2360.69	76
69	Iowa State	2356.20	62
70	Tennessee	2351.86	68
71	SMU	2346.36	71
72	Nevada	2328.42	75
73	Syracuse	2314.09	69
74	Arizona	2302.86	78
75	San Diego State	2302.46	61
76	Texas Tech	2284.83	73
77	Louisiana-Lafayette	2282.87	77
78	Boston College	2252.54	85
79	Wyoming	2251.93	79
80	Bowling Green	2231.71	82
81	UCLA	2223.97	72
82	Miami, OH	2217.11	80
83	East Carolina	2196.16	84
84	Hawaii	2195.48	86
85	Washington St.	2181.20	81
86	San Jose State	2165.35	87
87	Western Kentucky	2160.30	89
88	UTEP	2154.15	83
89	Marshall	2141.28	90
90	Army	2110.10	88
91	Kentucky	2106.89	97
92	Fresno State	2090.77	101
93	Duke	2085.82	92
94	Maryland	2081.09	91
95	Louisiana-Monroe	2073.70	95
96	Ball State	2072.24	93
97	Oregon State	2071.50	94
98	Eastern Michigan	2045.13	96
99	Minnesota	2033.03	108
100	Kent State	2012.83	98
101	Kansas	1946.97	99
102	Central Michigan	1918.87	102
103	North Texas	1912.90	103
104	Colorado	1900.19	112
105	Mississippi	1893.56	100
106	Rice	1890.90	105
107	Buffalo	1883.73	107
108	Troy	1883.26	104
109	Colorado St.	1844.10	106
110	Idaho	1838.43	109
111	Indiana	1823.00	111
112	New Mexico State	1809.79	110
113	UAB	1760.97	113
114	Middle Tennessee	1663.91	114
115	UNLV	1646.85	116
116	Tulane	1634.70	115
117	Memphis	1493.55	117
118	Florida Atlantic	1432.27	119
119	Akron	1427.22	118
120	New Mexico	1270.60	120

Performance on Games of November 26, 2011

After three straight winning weeks, xHPI lost last week–barely.  Performance on Best Bets was a bit better, going 3-2.  xHPI also went 3-2 on the other games of note that I had posted, losing the KU-MU game and the Texas-Texas A&M game, but correctly predicting that Stanford, LSU, and Alabama would cover.

Best Bets                        Week:    3-2 (60%)         Season:   21-22   (49%)

Against the Spread   Week:   26-27 (49%)    Season:  224-247  (48%)

Straight Up                   Week:  41-12 (77%)       Season:  341-134   (72%)

Predictions for Weekend of November 26, 2011

Last week I posted my predictions for every game.  I don’t think I’ll do that this week, but I will post predictions for games of notes in addition to my usual “Best” Bets.

Best Bets

Michigan (-7.5) vs. Ohio State – Michigan has appeared in the Best Bets before, because it remains one of the teams that seems to be overrated in xHPI.  Last week’s performances by both teams probably widened the gap between the two this week.

Wake Forest (+2) vs. Vanderbilt – xHPI has Wake Forest winning this game by more than a touchdown.

Louisiana-Lafayette (+14) at Arizona – xHPI has this as a close game.  Arizona may win, but xHPI predicts that the Ragin’ Cajuns will cover.

Florida State (-1) at Florida – xHPI agrees that the Seminoles will win, but thinks the game won’t be as close as the oddsmakers predict.

San Jose State (+6.5) at Fresno State – xHPI says the wrong team is favored.

 

Other games of note:

Texas A&M (-8) vs. Texas – xHPI picks A&M by 9 1/2

LSU (-11.5) vs. Arkansas – xHPI picks LSU by 18 1/2

Missouri (-24) vs. Kansas – xHPI picks Mizzou by 23

Alabama (-21) at Auburn – xHPI picks Alabama by 23 1/2

Stanford (-7) vs. Notre Dame – xHPI picks Stanford by 5

 

Rankings as of November 19, 2011

LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State remain the only four possibilities for winning the national championship.  Their order has changed somewhat, and the LSU and Alabama are beginning to separate from the two Big 12 schools.  Unlike the BCS formula and the AP poll, xHPI remains relatively unimpressed with Arkansas.

Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Oregon were all hurt by last week’s upsets, but not by as much as in other ranking systems.    In xHPI, late season losses don’t hurt a team as much as they do in the minds of voters in the polls, or as much losses affect rankings early in the season.  The main reason for this difference is that xHPI scores are essentially averages of the results of all games, so later in the season, that average is divided among more games, diminishing the effect of each individual game.  In fact, the average team moved about 3.5 slots in the rankings last week, compared to over 6 slots a month ago.

The quality of opponent also comes into play; a team doesn’t drop as much when it loses to a quality opponent.  That is one of the primary reason that Oregon, in particular, dropped only one spot in the rankings. Their narrow loss to USC affected them less than Notre Dame’s win over a bad Boston College team did; Oregon dropped one place, while Notre Dame fell from #7 to #10.

	Team	Score	LW
1	LSU	3466.03	3
2	Alabama	3422.88	1
3	Oklahoma	3367.47	2
4	Oklahoma State	3335.38	4
5	Boise State	3221.33	5
6	Michigan	3137.46	11
7	Oregon	3110.11	6
8	Stanford	3093.40	8
9	Wisconsin	3075.99	9
10	Notre Dame	3035.31	7
11	Florida State	3033.70	10
12	Texas A&M	3007.65	13
13	USC	2967.16	14
14	Georgia	2932.49	12
15	Arkansas	2913.17	18
16	Kansas State	2905.46	16
17	Houston	2885.58	27
18	Virginia Tech	2868.87	19
19	Michigan St.	2864.14	24
20	Rutgers	2862.00	28
21	Texas Christian	2820.50	25
22	South Carolina	2817.80	17
23	Penn State	2815.25	26
24	Miami, FL	2814.18	31
25	Missouri	2810.50	23
26	Baylor	2786.99	34
27	Texas	2780.54	22
28	Southern Miss.	2770.51	15
29	Nebraska	2754.90	20
30	Arizona State	2751.17	30
31	West Virginia	2741.04	33
32	Temple	2733.67	36
33	South Florida	2731.82	32
34	Clemson	2722.97	21
35	Tulsa	2697.14	37
36	Cincinnati	2687.11	29
37	Toledo	2686.11	40
38	Iowa	2657.97	39
39	North Carolina	2644.70	38
40	Georgia Tech	2630.89	41
41	Wake Forest	2614.87	46
42	Ohio State	2604.50	35
43	Illinois	2596.93	42
44	Virginia	2586.72	48
45	Pittsburgh	2579.20	43
46	Utah	2576.21	47
47	BYU	2575.22	50
48	Northwestern	2568.88	44
49	Florida	2545.17	45
50	California	2539.86	51
51	Louisville	2535.50	54
52	Louisiana Tech	2516.76	52
53	Northern Illinois	2490.23	49
54	Ohio	2474.44	55
55	Western Mich.	2459.37	57
56	North Carolina St.	2457.53	72
57	Vanderbilt	2451.47	53
58	Mississippi State	2437.52	56
59	Florida International	2417.98	67
60	Arkansas State	2399.69	69
61	San Diego State	2398.64	63
62	Iowa State	2398.46	75
63	Central Florida	2397.73	64
64	Auburn	2385.82	61
65	Connecticut	2383.04	60
66	Purdue	2382.80	62
67	Navy	2378.71	58
68	Tennessee	2376.07	70
69	Syracuse	2373.41	66
70	Air Force	2363.77	68
71	SMU	2346.89	59
72	UCLA	2339.54	79
73	Texas Tech	2319.31	76
74	Washington	2318.78	65
75	Nevada	2318.44	74
76	Utah State	2310.98	71
77	Louisiana-Lafayette	2289.92	77
78	Arizona	2267.24	83
79	Wyoming	2255.97	73
80	Miami, OH	2224.57	80
81	Washington St.	2222.88	82
82	Bowling Green	2205.90	84
83	UTEP	2205.13	78
84	East Carolina	2202.29	89
85	Boston College	2195.20	86
86	Hawaii	2177.54	81
87	San Jose State	2144.02	94
88	Army	2115.75	85
89	Western Kentucky	2111.40	91
90	Marshall	2108.20	88
91	Maryland	2091.89	87
92	Duke	2090.71	95
93	Ball State	2085.74	92
94	Oregon State	2072.51	100
95	Louisiana-Monroe	2068.78	90
96	Eastern Michigan	2060.29	93
97	Kentucky	2034.49	97
98	Kent State	2022.85	99
99	Kansas	1940.92	96
100	Mississippi	1935.02	98
101	Fresno State	1926.11	108
102	Central Michigan	1916.90	103
103	North Texas	1916.17	101
104	Troy	1913.98	109
105	Rice	1894.98	110
106	Colorado St.	1874.30	104
107	Buffalo	1873.24	111
108	Minnesota	1872.46	106
109	Idaho	1842.33	112
110	New Mexico State	1831.21	105
111	Indiana	1829.06	102
112	Colorado	1803.97	107
113	UAB	1780.74	114
114	Middle Tennessee	1660.66	113
115	Tulane	1631.40	116
116	UNLV	1613.92	115
117	Memphis	1522.34	118
118	Akron	1442.33	117
119	Florida Atlantic	1380.13	119
120	New Mexico	1282.63	120

Performance on Games of November 19, 2011

Last week I posted my predictions for all 56 games involving two FBS teams, so I have can’t fudge on the results.  I’m happy to report that overall, it was a winning week for xHPI–the third in a row–but let’s just overlook it’s performance on Best Bets.  If we subtract the disastrous first week, xHPI has a winning record for the season.

Best Bets                        Week:    1-4 (20%)         Season:   18-20   (47%)

Against the Spread   Week:   30-26 (54%)    Season:  198-220  (47%)

Straight Up                   Week:  40-16 (71%)       Season:  300-122   (71%)

Predictions for Games of November 19, 2011

I can’t promise I’ll do this every week, but I’m going to try something different.  Below I’ve posted my predictions for this week’s games (including games that have been played on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday).  My Best Bets are listed in bold type.  Point spreads are listed in parentheses, next to the favored team.

Home	Visitor	xHPI Pick	Pick vs. Spread
Ball State	No. Illinois (-18)	No. Illinois	Ball State
Ohio  (-7)	Bowling Green	Ohio	Bowling Green
W. Michigan     (-1.5)	Miami, OH	W. Michigan	W. Michigan
So. Miss.  (-23.5)	UAB	So. Miss.	So. Miss.
N. Carolina	Va. Tech  (-9.5)	Va. Tech	N. Carolina
Marshall  (-13.5)	Memphis	Marshall	Marshall
Toledo  (-14.5)	C. Michigan	Toledo	Toledo
Okla. State  (-26.5)	Iowa State	Okla. State	Iowa State
Akron	Buffalo	Buffalo	Akron
Louisville	Connecticut  (-1)	Connecticut	Connecticut
Nebraska	Michigan  (-3.5)	Michigan	Michigan
Indiana	Mich. St.  (-28)	Mich. St.	Indiana
Iowa    (-2.5)	Purdue	Iowa	Iowa
Cincinnati  (-3)	Rutgers	Cincinnati	Cincinnati
Wisconsin (-14.5)	Illinois	Wisconsin	Illinois
Minnesota	Northwestern (-15.5)	Northwestern	Northwestern
Kansas	Texas A&M  (-31)	Texas A&M	Kansas
Kentucky	Georgia  (-30.5)	Kentucky	Georgia
Ga. Tech (-11)	Duke	Ga. Tech	Ga. Tech
E. Michigan	Kent State  (-3.5)	Kent State	E. Michigan
Army	Temple (-13.5)	Temple	Temple
New Mexico	Wyoming (-24)	Wyoming	Wyoming
Maryland	Wake Forest (-10)	Wake Forest	Wake Forest
Ark. State (-11)	Middle Tenn.	Ark. State	Ark. State
Tulsa  (-14)	UTEP	Tulsa	UTEP
Clemson  (-7.5)	NC State	Clemson	Clemson
Penn State	Ohio State  (-6.5)	Penn State	Penn State
Miami, FL	S. Florida (-1)	S. Florida	S. Florida
Miss. State	Arkansas  (-13)	Arkansas	Arkansas State
SMU	Houston  (-20)	Houston	SMU
Texas Tech	Missouri  (-18)	Missouri	Texas Tech
Tulane	Rice   (-14)	Rice	Tulane
Fla. Atlantic	Troy   (-11)	Troy	Troy
Washington   (-2)	Oregon State	Washington	Washington
Colorado St.	TCU  (-34)	TCU	Colorado St.
Bos. Coll.	Notre Dame   (-24.5)	Notre Dame	Notre Dame
Navy  (-5.5)	San Jose State	Navy	Navy
La. Tech	Nevada  (-7)	La. Tech	La. Tech
Fla. Int’l	La.-Monroe  (-1.5)	Fla. Int’l	Fla. Int’l
Utah State  (-10)	Idaho	Utah State	Utah State
Utah   (-3.5)	Wash. St.	Utah	Utah
UNLV	Air Force  (-24)	Air Force	UNLV
C. Florida  (-7)	East Carolina	C. Florida	East Carolina
Vanderbilt   (-1.5)	Tennessee	Vanderbilt	Tennessee
LSU   (-30.5)	Mississippi	LSU	LSU
Virginia	Fla. State   (-17.5)	Fla. State	Virginia
Colorado	UCLA  (-11)	UCLA	UCLA
Oklahoma (-15.5)	Baylor	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
Kansas State	Texas  (-8.5)	Texas	Kansas State
USC	Oregon   (-14.5)	Oregon	USC
Boise State  (-18.5)	San Diego State	Boise State	San Diego St.
Arizona	Ariz. State  (-10.5)	Ariz. State	Ariz. State
New Mex. State	BYU   (-22.5)	BYU	New Mex. St.
California	Stanford  (-18)	Stanford	Stanford
Fresno State	Hawaii  (-4.5)	Hawaii	Hawaii
W. Kentucky  (-3)	North Texas	W. Kentucky	North Texas