Rankings through September 24, 2016

Rank Team Score
1 Alabama 3756.97
2 Louisville 3581.04
3 Michigan 3514.93
4 Tennessee 3458.40
5 Miami, FL 3457.49
6 Boise State 3453.17
7 Clemson 3436.72
8 Ohio State 3386.26
9 Stanford 3318.30
10 West Virginia 3307.94
11 Texas A&M 3261.24
12 Nebraska 3257.57
13 Wisconsin 3226.37
14 Colorado 3140.37
15 Houston 3127.16
16 Baylor 3097.48
17 Western Michigan 3077.11
18 Florida 3057.42
19 Virginia Tech 3044.99
20 Wake Forest 3020.79
21 Toledo 2990.51
22 UCLA 2965.30
23 San Diego State 2950.92
24 Memphis 2899.58
25 Troy 2898.33
26 Florida State 2873.13
27 Washington 2871.94
28 Utah 2862.17
29 Arizona State 2856.46
30 Kansas State 2850.34
31 Auburn 2843.57
32 Oklahoma 2832.53
33 Texas 2823.99
34 Navy 2823.85
35 Air Force 2818.57
36 Mississippi 2813.79
37 Arkansas 2807.24
38 Maryland 2769.72
39 Minnesota 2769.52
40 Texas Tech 2757.57
41 South Florida 2744.29
42 Southern Mississippi 2710.20
43 Georgia Tech 2692.39
44 Central Michigan 2684.10
45 Texas Christian 2678.59
46 Oregon 2677.70
47 Missouri 2651.20
48 Army 2646.58
49 Mississippi State 2645.88
50 Iowa 2640.07
51 Georgia Southern 2626.42
52 Duke 2606.47
53 Oklahoma State 2605.90
54 Cincinnati 2580.36
55 LSU 2573.59
56 North Carolina 2561.98
57 Penn State 2528.94
58 Georgia 2527.23
59 Ball State 2525.75
60 Pittsburgh 2507.17
61 Middle Tenneseee 2492.90
62 North Carolina State 2492.21
63 Central Florida 2490.77
64 Appalachian State 2480.74
65 Louisiana Tech 2459.71
66 Arizona 2437.51
67 Eastern Michigan 2429.29
68 Michigan St. 2416.61
69 Western Kentucky 2409.45
70 Tulane 2407.12
71 Oregon State 2400.69
72 Indiana 2394.25
73 East Carolina 2389.06
74 Vanderbilt 2383.11
75 BYU 2381.17
76 Notre Dame 2369.88
77 Tulsa 2367.78
78 Northwestern 2339.46
79 Syracuse 2334.51
80 California 2329.37
81 Temple 2319.93
82 Akron 2316.66
83 Ohio 2310.81
84 Marshall 2308.35
85 South Carolina 2307.56
86 Washington State 2274.16
87 USC 2244.83
88 Connecticut 2225.43
89 Old Dominion 2222.29
90 Colorado State 2221.93
91 Kentucky 2219.94
92 Boston College 2218.18
93 Louisiana-Lafayette 2199.71
94 Purdue 2157.95
95 Kent State 2156.56
96 Illinois 2153.64
97 Wyoming 2151.69
98 Nevada 2113.62
99 Virginia 2099.31
100 Utah State 2095.63
101 Rutgers 2082.58
102 Louisiana-Monroe 2077.54
103 Texas-San Antonio 2055.80
104 Kansas 2023.44
105 UNLV 2010.51
106 Massachusetts 2003.74
107 New Mexico 1990.97
108 South Alabama 1954.99
109 Fresno State 1934.10
110 North Texas 1912.01
111 SMU 1903.15
112 Georgia State 1853.25
113 Idaho 1822.26
114 Miami, OH 1808.17
115 Florida International 1794.28
116 Iowa State 1786.23
117 Charlotte 1765.26
118 Hawaii 1729.84
119 Buffalo 1718.03
120 Northern Illinois 1710.44
121 New Mexico State 1667.85
122 Texas State 1582.16
123 Arkansas State 1532.28
124 Rice 1521.39
125 UTEP 1520.85
126 San Jose State 1516.66
127 Bowling Green 1452.27
128 Florida Atlantic 1433.89

 

My first rankings of the 2016 season are finally posted. Since my rankings are based solely on performances in games, I’ve found that the fourth week is the earliest that the rankings seem to make any sense, and even four games (or three, for some teams) is not a lot to produce reliable results for many teams. There are some pretty big surprises in these rankings; these will moderate over time.

Posted in Rankings | Leave a comment

Final Rankings, 2015-16

Rank Team Score
1 Alabama 3549.38
2 Clemson 3314.16
3 Ohio State 3283.69
4 Mississippi 3195.32
5 Michigan 3159.79
6 Stanford 3129.14
7 Oklahoma 3122.50
8 Tennessee 3058.80
9 Notre Dame 3053.02
10 Michigan St. 3007.77
11 LSU 3006.98
12 Arkansas 2990.78
13 Florida State 2989.24
14 Utah 2931.59
15 USC 2925.47
16 North Carolina 2896.56
17 Mississippi State 2889.69
18 Toledo 2883.56
19 Houston 2876.03
20 Washington 2875.88
21 Florida 2865.26
22 Wisconsin 2846.03
23 Georgia 2837.20
24 Navy 2835.62
25 Iowa 2835.60
26 Texas Christian 2822.38
27 Bowling Green 2811.75
28 Oregon 2810.92
29 Baylor 2809.49
30 UCLA 2800.11
31 Boise State 2776.19
32 Western Kentucky 2764.12
33 West Virginia 2759.16
34 San Diego State 2755.83
35 Texas A&M 2730.59
36 California 2703.23
37 Appalachian State 2689.89
38 Northwestern 2689.38
39 Auburn 2679.50
40 Nebraska 2678.96
41 Louisville 2660.84
42 South Florida 2660.10
43 BYU 2657.30
44 Memphis 2653.86
45 Oklahoma State 2645.21
46 Temple 2641.31
47 Penn State 2622.18
48 Virginia Tech 2593.16
49 Washington State 2592.73
50 Arizona State 2590.63
51 Pittsburgh 2587.47
52 Marshall 2579.84
53 Western Michigan 2574.85
54 Miami, FL 2555.04
55 Georgia Southern 2522.68
56 Duke 2512.00
57 Southern Mississippi 2504.63
58 Louisiana Tech 2469.83
59 North Carolina State 2465.59
60 Air Force 2458.08
61 Indiana 2449.32
62 Ohio 2443.62
63 Minnesota 2438.12
64 Georgia Tech 2426.62
65 Texas Tech 2418.60
66 Arizona 2393.98
67 Syracuse 2387.85
68 Northern Illinois 2384.36
69 Cincinnati 2382.70
70 Central Michigan 2381.75
71 Middle Tenneseee 2376.24
72 Arkansas State 2363.27
73 East Carolina 2348.16
74 Kansas State 2333.99
75 Illinois 2313.40
76 Virginia 2305.81
77 Texas 2293.61
78 Colorado State 2291.35
79 Akron 2281.26
80 Iowa State 2268.97
81 Missouri 2266.80
82 San Jose State 2248.64
83 New Mexico 2241.84
84 South Carolina 2238.69
85 Kentucky 2235.93
86 Colorado 2223.51
87 Connecticut 2215.98
88 Boston College 2214.89
89 Vanderbilt 2209.45
90 Tulsa 2206.01
91 Utah State 2181.21
92 Buffalo 2163.05
93 Maryland 2161.81
94 Purdue 2150.83
95 Nevada 2150.38
96 Wake Forest 2134.56
97 Georgia State 2101.36
98 Troy 2080.04
99 Massachusetts 2037.45
100 Florida Atlantic 2036.98
101 Rutgers 2034.53
102 UNLV 2003.77
103 Idaho 1987.81
104 South Alabama 1976.95
105 Ball State 1936.37
106 Florida International 1903.26
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 1884.36
108 Oregon State 1880.82
109 Texas State 1875.18
110 Fresno State 1867.80
111 Louisiana-Monroe 1863.05
112 Rice 1846.09
113 SMU 1843.28
114 Army 1832.61
115 Old Dominion 1802.29
116 Texas-San Antonio 1788.07
117 Kent State 1780.92
118 UTEP 1765.77
119 Eastern Michigan 1759.77
120 New Mexico State 1754.83
121 Miami, OH 1753.56
122 Tulane 1737.59
123 Wyoming 1730.73
124 Hawaii 1652.23
125 Charlotte 1615.16
126 Central Florida 1518.33
127 North Texas 1465.84
128 Kansas 1450.50
Posted in Rankings | Leave a comment

National Championship Game: Evolution of a Point Spread

Because xHPI takes into account both margin of victory and quality of opponent in creating a score for each team in each game, a team’s rating will change at least slightly every time one of its opponents plays a game. In fact, since that opponent’s quality rating is based on its schedule, each team’s rating changes every time its opponents’ opponents play a game.

Most of the time those changes are very small, and the multiple changes that multiple opponents (and their opponents, in turn) bring into a team’s ranking tend to roughly cancel one another out. This is particularly true in conference play, when generally half of a team’s conference opponents win in any given week, and half of them lose. However, at times, these opponents’ outcomes can all largely align in one direction to produce relatively large swings in a team’s score relative to other teams. Such an occurrence often happens in bowl season, when a conference has a particularly strong (or weak) performance in bowl games.

And, of course, the point spreads that xHPI projects are based on the relative scores of the two teams. So when I calculated the point spread for the National Championship game, I decided to take a look at how the spread evolved over the bowl season. The results are presented in the chart below.

Margin of Victory

At the end of the regular season, Alabama and Clemson were ranked #1 and #2, respectively. xHPI projected a margin of victory of 3.8 points for the Crimson Tide. The early bowl games featured more success for the SEC (3-1) than the ACC (3-3); consequently, the point spread grew to 4.95 points. The spread grew to 5.2 points after New Year’s Eve’s first game, the Peach Bowl, in which Florida State lost to Houston.

While both Alabama’s and Clemson’s ratings increased after their victories in the semifinal games, Alabama saw the bigger jump after its more impressive victory, and, as a result, the point spread jumped by more than a point, to 6.44.

New Year’s Day brought two SEC victories and one SEC defeat, plus one quasi-ACC (Notre Dame) defeat. The point spread increased another third of a point, to 6.8. Georgia and Arkansas victories on January 2 resulted in a final jump of .18 points, raising the final point spread to 6.98 points. All-in-all, Alabama’s projected margin of victory increased by 3.18 points. Of that increase, only 1.24 points, or less than 40% of the change, was due to the semifinal games.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Bowl Confidence Picks

Regular readers of xHPI know that I use my scoring to predict the outcome of games. Using a regression model, I use the relative rankings of the two teams in any game to produce a predicted point spread. The model even allows me to adjust the prediction to take home field advantage into account.

I’ve used that model to generate predictions for all 40 bowl games and the National Championship game (using the predicted winners of the Cotton and Orange Bowls). I then rank them based on the predicted point spread, and assign confidence points in defending order of predicted point spreads. I’m using these predictions in a couple of confidence pools, as I’ve done in past years.

Below are my confidence picks for this bowl season. I’m playing these picks on the ESPN Bowl Confidence pool. In fact, I’ve created a group for xHPI readers if you want to compare your picks to these. You can join that group by clicking here. I’ve made one change to the picks below. In the pools, I assigned the National Championship game a confidence level of 1, and adjusted the remaining games accordingly. My reasoning is that my predicted point spread is contingent on my Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl predictions being correct, reducing my confidence that my pick will be accurate.

Finally, I noticed in a draft of this that I previewed that the table bleeds over into the menu on the right side of the page. I think the information is still readable, but my limited technical skills made it impossible for me to fix the formatting. My apologies if it is difficult to read.

Date Bowl xHPI Favorite xHPI Underdog xHPI Spread Confidence
12/19 New Mexico Arizona New Mexico .5 2
12/19 Royal Purple Utah BYU 5 24
12/19 Camellia Appalachian St. Ohio 8 33
12/19 Cure San Jose State Georgia State 1.5 5
12/19 New Orleans Louisiana Tech Arkansas St. 3.5 14
12/21 Miami Beach South Florida W. Kentucky 2 6
12/22 Famous Idaho Potatoes Akron Utah State 1.5 4
12/22 Boca Raton Toledo Temple 4.5 20
12/23 Poinsettia Boise State N. Illinois 6.5 30
12/23 GoDaddy Bowling Green Ga. Southern 13 40
12/24 Bahamas W. Michigan Middle Tenn. 6.5 29
12/24 Hawaii San Diego State Cincinnati 5 23
12/26 St. Petersburg Marshall Connecticut 10 36
12/26 Sun Miami, FL Washington St. 3 12
12/26 Heart of Dallas Washington Southern Miss 8.5 35
12/26 Pinstripe Duke Indiana 1 3
12/26 Independence Virginia Tech Tulsa 11.5 37
12/26 Foster Farms UCLA Nebraska 3.5 15
12/28 Military Navy Pittsburgh 8 34
12/28 Quick Lane C. Michigan Minnesota 2 7
12/29 Armed Forces California Air Force 4.5 21
12/29 Russell Athletic North Carolina Baylor 4.5 19
12/29 Arizona Colorado State Nevada 5.5 26
12/29 Texas LSU Texas Tech 12.5 39
12/30 Birmingham Memphis Auburn 2.5 11
12/30 Belk Mississippi St. NC State 6 28
12/30 Music City Texas A&M Louisville 3.5 13
12/30 Holiday USC Wisconsin 3.5 17
12/31 Peach Florida State Houston 6.5 31
12/31 Orange Clemson Oklahoma 2.5 9
12/31 Cotton Alabama Michigan State 7.5 32
1/1 Outback Tennessee Northwestern 5.5 25
1/1 Fiesta Ohio State Notre Dame 5 22
1/1 Citrus Michigan Florida 3.5 18
1/1 Rose Stanford Iowa Pick 1
1/1 Sugar Mississippi Oklahoma St. 11.5 38
1/2 TaxSlayer Georgia Penn State 2.5 10
1/2 Liberty Arkansas Kansas State 17 41
1/2 Alamo TCU Oregon 2.5 8
1/2 Cactus West Virginia Arizona State 5.5 27
1/11 Nat. Championship Alabama Clemson 3.5 16
Posted in Predictions | Leave a comment

Rankings through December 5, 2015

Rank Team Score LW
1 Alabama 3414.81 1
2 Clemson 3288.38 2
3 Ohio State 3284.70 3
4 Oklahoma 3206.57 4
5 Michigan St. 3155.95 5
6 Mississippi 3134.14 6
7 Notre Dame 3128.62 7
8 Michigan 3108.64 8
9 Florida State 3089.03 9
10 Stanford 3051.14 10
11 Tennessee 2981.96 14
12 North Carolina 2959.62 12
13 Iowa 2959.52 13
14 LSU 2954.94 16
15 Arkansas 2945.83 17
16 Florida 2935.12 15
17 USC 2933.06 11
18 Navy 2902.15 18
19 Bowling Green 2888.05 23
20 Utah 2887.05 20
21 Toledo 2882.59 21
22 Texas Christian 2870.96 22
23 Houston 2866.78 24
24 Washington 2818.98 25
25 Mississippi State 2814.20 27
26 Baylor 2810.40 19
27 Wisconsin 2807.09 28
28 UCLA 2794.73 29
29 Oregon 2791.75 33
30 Northwestern 2791.07 30
31 Georgia 2776.31 31
32 West Virginia 2773.85 26
33 Texas A&M 2751.44 34
34 Memphis 2747.40 36
35 Western Kentucky 2744.49 38
36 Oklahoma State 2734.98 37
37 South Florida 2730.17 35
38 Temple 2722.13 32
39 BYU 2710.10 39
40 Boise State 2693.60 40
41 Appalachian State 2691.41 41
42 Nebraska 2680.11 43
43 Penn State 2676.75 42
44 San Diego State 2670.48 44
45 Pittsburgh 2643.04 45
46 California 2642.00 49
47 Louisville 2638.51 48
48 Virginia Tech 2633.87 47
49 Miami, FL 2630.43 46
50 Marshall 2579.62 51
51 Arizona State 2575.39 50
52 Auburn 2568.12 53
53 Western Michigan 2565.25 52
54 Washington State 2533.81 55
55 Southern Mississippi 2518.00 54
56 North Carolina State 2515.85 59
57 Duke 2515.41 58
58 Cincinnati 2497.60 60
59 Indiana 2487.56 61
60 Air Force 2474.43 63
61 Northern Illinois 2473.23 57
62 Texas Tech 2471.47 62
63 Georgia Tech 2446.87 64
64 Georgia Southern 2438.94 56
65 Central Michigan 2430.30 65
66 Louisiana Tech 2430.12 66
67 Ohio 2417.58 67
68 Syracuse 2408.71 68
69 Arkansas State 2401.16 73
70 Minnesota 2400.16 69
71 East Carolina 2390.44 70
72 Kansas State 2363.87 77
73 Arizona 2355.56 71
74 Middle Tenneseee 2346.83 72
75 Colorado State 2329.98 74
76 Virginia 2325.85 75
77 Illinois 2325.85 76
78 Texas 2323.24 87
79 Iowa State 2301.62 78
80 Missouri 2263.44 79
81 New Mexico 2252.14 80
82 Tulsa 2242.69 81
83 Boston College 2240.91 82
84 Connecticut 2237.16 85
85 Akron 2235.53 84
86 Kentucky 2235.30 83
87 South Carolina 2235.13 86
88 San Jose State 2197.76 89
89 Vanderbilt 2197.73 88
90 Colorado 2188.65 90
91 Utah State 2187.44 91
92 Maryland 2184.80 93
93 Purdue 2184.63 92
94 Buffalo 2161.91 94
95 Wake Forest 2146.85 95
96 Georgia State 2139.97 100
97 Nevada 2134.31 96
98 Troy 2082.44 101
99 Florida Atlantic 2056.77 97
100 Massachusetts 2043.13 98
101 Rutgers 2040.36 99
102 UNLV 1994.70 102
103 Idaho 1976.62 103
104 South Alabama 1976.37 105
105 Ball State 1948.18 104
106 Florida International 1913.00 107
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 1890.89 106
108 Texas State 1879.73 108
109 SMU 1862.50 109
110 Fresno State 1855.61 110
111 Louisiana-Monroe 1853.33 123
112 Rice 1849.13 112
113 Oregon State 1848.74 111
114 Old Dominion 1818.88 113
115 Texas-San Antonio 1796.00 114
116 Kent State 1777.14 115
117 UTEP 1772.17 116
118 Army 1771.81 117
119 New Mexico State 1759.96 119
120 Eastern Michigan 1759.00 118
121 Tulane 1753.26 120
122 Wyoming 1723.48 121
123 Miami, OH 1703.32 122
124 Charlotte 1683.76 124
125 Hawaii 1642.01 125
126 Central Florida 1527.89 126
127 Kansas 1474.70 127
128 North Texas 1468.50 128

xHPI agrees with three of the four teams picked for the college football playoff. Michigan State’s victory over Iowa did not give it enough of a bump to get into the top four (and it also helped Ohio State), so the top four teams remain unchanged from last week.

Posted in Rankings | Leave a comment

Rankings through November 28, 2015

Rank Team Score LW
1 Alabama 3396.80 1
2 Clemson 3297.32 2
3 Ohio State 3291.63 4
4 Oklahoma 3208.21 5
5 Michigan St. 3167.24 8
6 Mississippi 3138.04 9
7 Notre Dame 3120.39 6
8 Michigan 3111.48 3
9 Florida State 3100.60 10
10 Stanford 2990.65 13
11 USC 2988.84 16
12 North Carolina 2981.49 17
13 Iowa 2981.24 14
14 Tennessee 2980.10 12
15 Florida 2977.23 7
16 LSU 2951.50 19
17 Arkansas 2946.07 21
18 Navy 2899.12 11
19 Baylor 2896.23 15
20 Utah 2892.40 20
21 Toledo 2877.68 18
22 Texas Christian 2869.30 22
23 Bowling Green 2858.04 26
24 Houston 2832.84 32
25 Washington 2822.82 35
26 West Virginia 2814.74 37
27 Mississippi State 2806.36 23
28 Wisconsin 2799.78 29
29 UCLA 2798.93 24
30 Northwestern 2795.00 30
31 Georgia 2790.23 34
32 Temple 2782.16 36
33 Oregon 2773.46 28
34 Texas A&M 2752.33 27
35 South Florida 2741.49 33
36 Memphis 2740.60 45
37 Oklahoma State 2734.21 25
38 Western Kentucky 2720.61 47
39 BYU 2720.50 39
40 Boise State 2696.41 40
41 Appalachian State 2693.93 42
42 Penn State 2681.01 31
43 Nebraska 2667.72 41
44 San Diego State 2660.30 43
45 Pittsburgh 2644.78 38
46 Miami, FL 2643.05 52
47 Virginia Tech 2642.19 44
48 Louisville 2637.14 46
49 California 2631.78 48
50 Arizona State 2581.73 53
51 Marshall 2580.36 50
52 Western Michigan 2568.10 58
53 Auburn 2566.76 51
54 Southern Mississippi 2538.47 65
55 Washington State 2533.77 49
56 Georgia Southern 2526.50 59
57 Northern Illinois 2525.28 54
58 Duke 2523.66 56
59 North Carolina State 2497.46 55
60 Cincinnati 2495.97 64
61 Indiana 2481.26 67
62 Texas Tech 2468.74 62
63 Air Force 2467.71 57
64 Georgia Tech 2450.49 63
65 Central Michigan 2433.58 61
66 Louisiana Tech 2432.16 60
67 Ohio 2420.96 70
68 Syracuse 2415.21 69
69 Minnesota 2405.20 68
70 East Carolina 2398.45 66
71 Arizona 2359.10 72
72 Middle Tenneseee 2346.35 83
73 Arkansas State 2336.73 79
74 Colorado State 2331.53 73
75 Virginia 2330.74 77
76 Illinois 2327.31 75
77 Kansas State 2325.18 76
78 Iowa State 2288.78 74
79 Missouri 2266.85 71
80 New Mexico 2249.15 95
81 Tulsa 2245.55 82
82 Boston College 2245.19 81
83 Kentucky 2245.00 80
84 Akron 2243.48 91
85 Connecticut 2236.91 78
86 South Carolina 2235.08 84
87 Texas 2220.41 86
88 Vanderbilt 2198.06 85
89 San Jose State 2196.69 92
90 Colorado 2191.85 90
91 Utah State 2189.45 94
92 Purdue 2182.69 88
93 Maryland 2180.14 87
94 Buffalo 2163.43 89
95 Wake Forest 2148.50 96
96 Nevada 2140.97 93
97 Florida Atlantic 2057.25 98
98 Massachusetts 2041.74 103
99 Rutgers 2041.26 100
100 Georgia State 2032.40 102
101 Troy 2021.08 99
102 UNLV 1997.80 97
103 Idaho 1973.82 107
104 Ball State 1941.44 101
105 South Alabama 1925.36 104
106 Louisiana-Lafayette 1921.72 106
107 Florida International 1917.31 108
108 Texas State 1916.07 109
109 SMU 1866.74 105
110 Fresno State 1854.57 112
111 Oregon State 1848.24 113
112 Rice 1847.34 114
113 Old Dominion 1819.35 115
114 Texas-San Antonio 1799.69 110
115 Kent State 1781.23 111
116 UTEP 1778.47 116
117 Army 1773.03 117
118 Eastern Michigan 1765.54 121
119 New Mexico State 1762.50 118
120 Tulane 1753.70 119
121 Wyoming 1722.85 124
122 Miami, OH 1707.23 123
123 Louisiana-Monroe 1678.63 122
124 Charlotte 1669.81 120
125 Hawaii 1642.99 125
126 Central Florida 1526.23 126
127 Kansas 1471.58 127
128 North Texas 1467.79 128
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The SEC Wacky Schedule Effect

When I posted my November 21 rankings, I promised a longer discussion about the SEC’s curious pre-Thanksgiving scheduling and its effect on the rankings. This is that discussion.

For the past several years, I’ve noticed that the SEC essentially schedules an “off week” just before Thanksgiving. In past years, I think almost all of the teams played non-conference games, but that appears to be changing: this year, there were four conference games, meaning fewer than half of the teams played non-conference games last week. Those six, however,  played a largely unimpressive list of opponents: two FCS opponents, and four FBS teams who had a collective 14-24 record (with half of those wins coming from one team, Georgia Southern).

Collectively, the SEC went 9-5 last week. Subtracting out the 4 wins and 4 losses in the conference games, the conference went 5-1 against non conference foes. Those six teams, despite their 5-1 record, saw their ratings drop by an average of 31.45 points. Interestingly, the drop in scores appeared not to hurt their rankings (as a group), since the average ranking of these six teams improved by 1.5 places. Much of that improvement is due to Auburn’s jump from #52 to #41, despite its rating improving by only 7.61 points after beating a 3-7 Idaho team. Kentucky’s 58-10 victory over Charlotte also improved its ranking by 8 spots. Two teams, Alabama and Florida, retained their previous rankings despite losing 40-50 rating points. Georgia dropped 40.27 points and four spots in the rankings despite beating seven-win Georgia Southern, and South Carolina’s loss to The Citadel cost it more than 90 points and six spots in the rankings.

But the SEC Wacky Schedule Effect doesn’t just hit those six teams, it affects the whole conference. Since those six teams have played several games against SEC teams, their drop in scoring also turns into a drop in strength of schedule for their conference opponents, depressing the gains that some of those teams might ordinarily expect to see. As a conference, the 14 SEC teams dropped an average of 14 points last weekend. Again, the rating drop didn’t necessarily translate into a ranking drop. Collectively, the 14 teams averaged a ranking improvement of 1.35 points. Given the 9-5 record of the conference, that ranking improvement seems pretty small.

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment