Final 2018-19 Rankings

Rank Team Score LW Spread Points
1 Clemson 3794.82 2 110.05
2 Alabama 3595.88 1 104.28
3 Georgia 3339.93 3 96.86
4 Notre Dame 3126.69 4 90.67
5 Ohio State 3110.20 7 90.2
6 Oklahoma 3100.18 6 89.91
7 Michigan 3088.18 5 89.56
8 LSU 3042.41 8 88.23
9 Fresno State 3001.98 12 87.06
10 Texas A&M 3001.25 15 87.04
11 Iowa 2984.96 14 86.56
12 Washington 2971.50 9 86.17
13 Florida 2968.87 19 86.1
14 Auburn 2963.91 21 85.95
15 Central Florida 2963.75 10 85.95
16 Appalachian State 2941.38 20 85.3
17 Kentucky 2924.64 17 84.81
18 West Virginia 2924.15 13 84.8
19 Missouri 2922.81 11 84.76
20 Texas 2916.89 25 84.59
21 Mississippi State 2913.81 18 84.5
22 Penn State 2891.81 16 83.86
23 Utah State 2881.45 27 83.56
24 Boise State 2865.52 22 83.1
25 Cincinnati 2832.17 23 82.13
26 Army 2826.32 29 81.96
27 Washington State 2819.38 26 81.76
28 Utah 2793.63 24 81.02
29 Syracuse 2783.26 30 80.71
30 Virginia 2737.68 40 79.39
31 Minnesota 2694.79 35 78.15
32 Stanford 2693.92 31 78.12
33 Ohio 2682.13 42 77.78
34 Wisconsin 2682.05 52 77.78
35 Northwestern 2669.78 37 77.42
36 UAB 2666.65 43 77.33
37 Oklahoma State 2662.07 46 77.2
38 Troy 2642.40 39 76.63
39 North Carolina State 2642.02 32 76.62
40 Michigan St. 2636.77 34 76.47
41 Duke 2633.37 51 76.37
42 Oregon 2624.71 38 76.12
43 BYU 2623.00 49 76.07
44 South Carolina 2608.56 28 75.65
45 Iowa State 2603.60 41 75.5
46 Georgia Southern 2601.70 50 75.45
47 Miami, FL 2581.86 33 74.87
48 Buffalo 2571.41 44 74.57
49 Boston College 2566.57 48 74.43
50 Vanderbilt 2565.77 36 74.41
51 Pittsburgh 2548.08 58 73.89
52 Arizona State 2543.67 53 73.77
53 Texas Tech 2533.41 59 73.47
54 Temple 2529.90 45 73.37
55 Marshall 2522.19 62 73.14
56 Texas Christian 2513.81 61 72.9
57 Virginia Tech 2509.69 60 72.78
58 Memphis 2509.26 54 72.77
59 Purdue 2499.02 47 72.47
60 Georgia Tech 2483.66 55 72.03
61 California 2478.09 63 71.86
62 North Texas 2458.26 57 71.29
63 Tennessee 2442.42 64 70.83
64 Indiana 2442.14 69 70.82
65 USC 2439.83 67 70.76
66 Middle Tennessee 2431.13 65 70.5
67 Houston 2430.97 56 70.5
68 Eastern Michigan 2424.66 66 70.32
69 Nebraska 2415.09 72 70.04
70 Florida International 2404.73 76 69.74
71 Toledo 2404.69 68 69.74
72 Air Force 2401.82 73 69.65
73 Miami, OH 2383.30 75 69.12
74 Arkansas State 2381.09 74 69.05
75 Wake Forest 2367.42 79 68.66
76 Northern Illinois 2354.73 71 68.29
77 Nevada 2351.49 77 68.19
78 Tulane 2344.75 84 68
79 Baylor 2339.74 87 67.85
80 Maryland 2339.55 81 67.85
81 Colorado 2332.44 80 67.64
82 Arizona 2329.78 78 67.56
83 Florida Atlantic 2328.43 83 67.52
84 San Diego State 2319.50 70 67.27
85 UCLA 2313.89 82 67.1
86 Southern Mississippi 2308.17 86 66.94
87 Mississippi 2286.27 85 66.3
88 Kansas State 2284.41 88 66.25
89 Wyoming 2246.86 89 65.16
90 Louisiana Tech 2234.19 93 64.79
91 Louisiana 2210.89 90 64.12
92 Western Michigan 2184.92 91 63.36
93 SMU 2178.64 92 63.18
94 North Carolina 2162.17 96 62.7
95 Florida State 2157.76 95 62.57
96 Louisiana-Monroe 2155.07 98 62.5
97 Hawaii 2141.71 94 62.11
98 South Florida 2135.68 97 61.93
99 Charlotte 2114.13 99 61.31
100 Coastal Carolina 2079.73 101 60.31
101 Kansas 2069.89 102 60.03
102 Navy 2065.01 100 59.89
103 Liberty 2045.94 104 59.33
104 Massachusetts 2035.17 103 59.02
105 Old Dominion 2010.63 106 58.31
106 Arkansas 2009.94 105 58.29
107 Tulsa 1985.27 108 57.57
108 Akron 1982.93 109 57.5
109 Ball State 1978.11 107 57.37
110 UNLV 1976.16 110 57.31
111 Illinois 1961.25 111 56.88
112 Western Kentucky 1916.90 112 55.59
113 New Mexico 1882.13 113 54.58
114 Oregon State 1863.52 114 54.04
115 South Alabama 1857.44 116 53.87
116 Georgia State 1850.74 115 53.67
117 Kent State 1841.97 118 53.42
118 Colorado State 1840.53 119 53.38
119 Bowling Green 1834.57 117 53.2
120 Texas State 1831.70 120 53.12
121 Central Michigan 1781.92 121 51.68
122 Louisville 1780.40 124 51.63
123 San Jose State 1779.02 123 51.59
124 East Carolina 1778.76 122 51.58
125 Rutgers 1753.72 125 50.86
126 New Mexico State 1727.32 126 50.09
127 Rice 1656.51 127 48.04
128 Texas-San Antonio 1593.19 128 46.2
129 Connecticut 1547.47 129 44.88
130 UTEP 1544.17 130 44.78
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Ignore All of These National Championship Picks

A funny thing happened to xHPI’s national championship pick–it changed.

At the end of the regular season xHPI had Alabama favored to win the national championship. xHPI favored the Crimson Tide over Clemson by 1.27 points. This is the pick that I used in my confidence picks. The bowl games changed things, however. Largely on the strength of their victory over Notre Dame, Clemson jumped ahead of Alabama, so that xHPI now favors Clemson by 1.12 points.

Seeing this change, I thought it would be interesting to see how xHPI’s prediction changed throughout the season. I looked at how xHPI viewed the two teams’ relative strength each week of the season, comparing each team’s spread points after each weekly rankings were calculated.

Week 5 (September 29)      Clemson by 7.32

Week 6 (October 6)              Clemson by 8.04

Week 7 (October 13)            Clemson by 5.63

Week 8 (October 20)            Clemson by 6.93

Week 9 (October 27)            Clemson by 6.38

Week 10 (November 3)        Alabama by 3.8

Week 11 (November 10)     Alabama by 5.85

Week 12  (November 17)   Alabama by 1.21

Week 13 (November 24)    Alabama by 1.86

Week 14 (December 1)      Alabama by 1.27

Bowls (January 1)              Clemson by 1.12

Clemson was a solid favorite for much of the season until Week 10. In that week, Alabama shut out LSU. Clemson had its own blowout, 77-16 over Louisville, but Louisville’s low opponent value actually dropped Clemson’s score.  Those two events resulted in a swing of more than 10 points. Clemson gained some of those points back in Week 12 with an impressive victory over Duke, coupled with Alabama’s sleepwalking victory over FCS team The Citadel.

Since that week, the two teams have been close, separated by no more than 1.86 points. With the current margin of 1.12 points, xHPI predicts a close game.

 

 

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How Early Bowl Results Affect Late Bowl Picks

Bowl season is coming down to the biggest bowl games–the ones that draw the most interest and the biggest audiences. Since xHPI incorporates the quality of prior opponents into the ratings, bowl games affect opponents’ ratings, which ultimately affects the ratings of teams that have not yet played. So I re-calculated xHPI’s point spreads taking into account the early bowl results.

Generally Big 10 and Big 12 teams improved, while SEC teams had a slight drop in score. But the point spread changes were small, for the most part. These revised spreads did not affect xHPI’s choice of a winner, but some games’ spreads changed by more than a point. The table below compares the original point spread calculation with the revised point spread incorporating every bowl game played through December 28.

Bowl Teams Pick as of End of Season Pick as of 12/28
Belk South Carolina vs. Virginia South Carolina (4.95) South Carolina (2.59)
Peach Florida vs. Michigan Michigan (8.15) Michigan (8.81)
Arizona Arkansas St. vs. Nevada Arkansas St. (1.47) Arkansas St. (1.97)
Cotton Notre Dame vs. Clemson Clemson (11.27) Clemson (11.38)
Orange Oklahoma vs. Alabama Alabama (17.02) Alabama (16.56)
Military Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech Cincinnati (10.03) Cincinnati (9.69)
Sun Stanford vs. Pittsburgh Stanford (5.29) Stanford (4.68)
Redbox Michigan St. vs. Oregon Michigan St. (0.76) Michigan St. (1.02)
Liberty Missouri vs. Oklahoma St. Missouri (12.33) Missouri (11.25)
Holiday Northwestern vs. Utah Utah (6.14) Utah (5.45)
Gator NC State vs. Texas A&M Texas A&M (6.83) Texas A&M (6.55)
Outback Mississippi St. vs. Iowa Iowa (0.76) Iowa (0.75)
Citrus Kentucky vs. Penn St. Penn State (<0.01) Penn State (1.15)
Fiesta LSU vs. Central Florida LSU (0.21) LSU (0.46)
Rose Washington vs. Ohio State Ohio State (1.33) Ohio State (1.42)
Sugar Texas vs. Georgia Georgia (18.52) Georgia (17.7)
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Ignore Some of These Bowl Picks

xHPI Pick XHPI Pick
Favorite Spread Underdog vs. Odds Straight Up Confidence
Tulane 3.5 Louisiana Louisiana Tulane 11
Utah State 7.5 North Texas Utah State Utah State 26
Fresno State 5 Arizona St. Fresno St. Fresno St. 37
Ga. Southern 3 E. Michigan Ga. Southern Ga. Southern 14
Appalachian St. 6.5 Middle Tenn. Appalachian St. Appalachian St. 35
UAB 2.5 Northern Ill. UAB UAB 18
Ohio 3 San Diego St. Ohio Ohio 20
Marshall 2.5 South Florida Marshall Marshall 30
Toledo 6 FIU FIU Toledo 10
BYU 13 W. Michigan W. Michigan BYU 31
Memphis 3.5 Wake Forest Memphis Memphis 23
Army 3.5 Houston Army Army 19
Buffalo 2 Troy Troy Troy 4
Hawaii 1.5 La. Tech Hawaii Hawaii 12
Boise St. 3 Boston Coll. Boise St. Boise St. 27
Georgia Tech 6 Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota 13
California Pick TCU TCU TCU 3
Temple 4 Duke Duke Temple 7
Miami, FL 4 Wisconsin Wisconsin Miami, FL 15
Vanderbilt 4 Baylor Vanderbilt Vanderbilt 33
Auburn 4 Purdue Auburn Auburn 29
W. Virginia 1.5 Syracuse W. Virginia W. Virginia 25
Wash. St. 3.5 Iowa St. Wash. St. Wash. St. 21
S. Carolina 4.5 Virginia S. Carolina S. Carolina 16
Michigan 7.5 Florida Michigan Michigan 28
Arkansas St. 1.5 Nevada Nevada Arkansas St. 9
Clemson 11.5 Notre Dame Notre Dame Clemson 34
Alabama 14 Oklahoma Alabama Alabama 38
Cincinnati 4.5 Virginia Tech Cincinnati Cincinnati 32
Stanford 6.5 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Stanford 17
Oregon 3 Michigan St. Michigan St. Michigan St. 6
Missouri 9.5 Okla. St. Missouri Missouri 36
Utah 7.5 Northwestern Northwestern Utah 22
Texas A&M 6.5 NC State Texas A&M Texas A&M 24
Miss. St. 7 Iowa Iowa Iowa 5
Penn St. 6.5 Kentucky Kentucky Penn St. 1
LSU 7.5 UCF UCF LSU 2
Ohio St. 6.5 Washington Washington Ohio St. 8
Georgia 12 Texas Georgia Georgia 39
Straight Up All Games Percent Best Bets
Last Week 12-2 85.71% 4-1
Season 307-114 72.92% 31-9
Vs. Spread
Last Week 7-7 50.00% 3-2
Season 192-219-10 46.79% 18-22

If you’ve followed this blog all season, you know that I’ve changed the name of my predictions to “Ignore These Picks” because xHPI has not performed well against the spread. However, for the bowl picks, I’m including straight-up picks, as well as listing a confidence level for each straight-up pick. xHPI has performed fairly well in picking the winners and losers, and in past years when I’ve used xHPI in confidence pools I’ve done pretty well. So while you should continue to ignore xHPI’s picks against the spread, if you do use the confidence picks, you might possibly end up doing well.

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Rankings through December 1, 2018

Rank Team Score LW Spread Points
1 Alabama 3689.76 1 107.74
2 Clemson 3646.14 2 106.47
3 Georgia 3466.43 3 101.22
4 Notre Dame 3257.92 4 95.13
5 Michigan 3189.70 5 93.14
6 Oklahoma 3111.60 6 90.86
7 Ohio State 3075.41 8 89.8
8 LSU 3031.29 9 88.51
9 Washington 3029.25 12 88.45
10 Central Florida 3023.81 7 88.3
11 Missouri 3021.83 10 88.24
12 Fresno State 3014.43 11 88.02
13 West Virginia 2981.68 13 87.06
14 Iowa 2950.00 14 86.14
15 Texas A&M 2942.29 15 85.92
16 Penn State 2930.23 16 85.56
17 Kentucky 2930.14 17 85.56
18 Mississippi State 2923.95 18 85.38
19 Florida 2909.69 19 84.96
20 Appalachian State 2891.82 20 84.44
21 Auburn 2874.34 24 83.93
22 Boise State 2858.22 23 83.46
23 Cincinnati 2854.56 22 83.35
24 Utah 2850.64 21 83.24
25 Texas 2831.91 25 82.69
26 Washington State 2830.14 26 82.64
27 Utah State 2803.74 27 81.87
28 South Carolina 2800.12 28 81.76
29 Army 2742.70 30 80.09
30 Syracuse 2730.35 31 79.73
31 Stanford 2721.43 32 79.47
32 North Carolina State 2708.50 35 79.09
33 Miami, FL 2697.39 29 78.76
34 Michigan St. 2662.96 36 77.76
35 Minnesota 2643.78 37 77.2
36 Vanderbilt 2642.44 38 77.16
37 Northwestern 2640.36 34 77.1
38 Oregon 2636.70 40 76.99
39 Troy 2633.06 41 76.89
40 Virginia 2630.00 44 76.8
41 Iowa State 2620.05 33 76.51
42 Ohio 2618.14 43 76.45
43 UAB 2610.50 46 76.23
44 Buffalo 2609.89 39 76.21
45 Temple 2605.00 42 76.07
46 Oklahoma State 2599.01 45 75.89
47 Purdue 2590.27 47 75.64
48 Boston College 2583.82 54 75.45
49 BYU 2582.39 48 75.41
50 Duke 2580.51 52 75.35
51 Georgia Southern 2576.02 51 75.22
52 Wisconsin 2573.57 49 75.15
53 Arizona State 2570.90 53 75.07
54 Memphis 2558.32 57 74.7
55 Georgia Tech 2553.91 58 74.57
56 Houston 2549.20 56 74.44
57 North Texas 2540.70 60 74.19
58 Pittsburgh 2540.62 55 74.19
59 Texas Tech 2535.16 59 74.03
60 Virginia Tech 2513.15 69 73.38
61 Texas Christian 2506.06 62 73.18
62 Marshall 2498.80 50 72.96
63 California 2492.87 61 72.79
64 Tennessee 2473.90 65 72.24
65 Middle Tennessee 2473.63 64 72.23
66 Eastern Michigan 2472.76 63 72.2
67 USC 2460.09 66 71.83
68 Toledo 2453.28 67 71.64
69 Indiana 2451.58 68 71.59
70 San Diego State 2416.43 71 70.56
71 Northern Illinois 2413.73 70 70.48
72 Nebraska 2406.09 74 70.26
73 Air Force 2404.57 73 70.21
74 Arkansas State 2401.87 75 70.13
75 Miami, OH 2395.79 72 69.96
76 Florida International 2388.28 76 69.74
77 Nevada 2351.53 78 68.66
78 Arizona 2345.67 77 68.49
79 Wake Forest 2342.91 80 68.41
80 Colorado 2341.57 79 68.37
81 Maryland 2340.47 81 68.34
82 UCLA 2330.72 83 68.06
83 Florida Atlantic 2329.67 82 68.03
84 Tulane 2313.40 84 67.55
85 Mississippi 2305.40 85 67.32
86 Southern Mississippi 2294.44 86 67
87 Baylor 2285.77 87 66.74
88 Kansas State 2277.68 88 66.51
89 Wyoming 2243.93 89 65.52
90 Louisiana 2239.58 91 65.4
91 Western Michigan 2238.58 90 65.37
92 SMU 2208.36 92 64.48
93 Louisiana Tech 2190.19 93 63.95
94 Hawaii 2182.69 94 63.73
95 Florida State 2174.51 97 63.5
96 North Carolina 2164.41 96 63.2
97 South Florida 2163.76 95 63.18
98 Louisiana-Monroe 2152.31 98 62.85
99 Charlotte 2110.88 99 61.64
100 Coastal Carolina 2082.35 101 60.8
101 Navy 2081.12 100 60.77
102 Kansas 2071.70 102 60.49
103 Massachusetts 2038.02 104 59.51
104 Liberty 2037.44 109 59.49
105 Arkansas 2020.98 105 59.01
106 Old Dominion 2011.17 106 58.73
107 Ball State 2002.48 107 58.47
108 Tulsa 2001.12 108 58.43
109 Akron 1996.73 103 58.3
110 UNLV 1982.60 110 57.89
111 Illinois 1958.18 111 57.18
112 Western Kentucky 1909.04 112 55.74
113 New Mexico 1880.54 114 54.91
114 Oregon State 1870.89 115 54.63
115 Georgia State 1858.09 118 54.26
116 South Alabama 1853.86 119 54.13
117 Bowling Green 1853.24 116 54.11
118 Kent State 1847.16 117 53.94
119 Colorado State 1833.11 120 53.53
120 Texas State 1831.65 121 53.48
121 East Carolina 1801.33 113 52.6
122 Central Michigan 1800.85 122 52.58
123 San Jose State 1786.56 123 52.17
124 Louisville 1782.96 124 52.06
125 Rutgers 1752.36 125 51.17
126 New Mexico State 1719.58 126 50.21
127 Rice 1657.78 127 48.41
128 Texas-San Antonio 1591.24 128 46.46
129 Connecticut 1560.98 129 45.58
130 UTEP 1544.17 130 45.09
Home Field Advantage 2.6001

After all that, nothing really changed. The top six teams remained the same. Ohio State moved up to #7, but still well out of the playoffs. Ohio State rose not because of the strength of its victory over Northwestern, but because Central Florida’s victory over Memphis was not impressive enough to hold their place in the rankings. Washington entered the top ten after beating Utah in the Pac-12 championship game.

xHPI’s playoff lineup would be Alabama vs. Notre Dame and Clemson vs. Georgia. Alabama and Georgia would be the clear favorites, favored by 12.61 and 5.25 points, respectively.

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Ignore These Predictions for the Week of December 1, 2018

Favorite Spread Underdog xHPI Pick
Buffalo 3.5 N. Illinois Bufalo
Washington 5 Utah Utah
Oklahoma 7.5 Texas Texas
Virginia Tech 4.5 Marshall Marshall
NC State 24 East Carolina NC State
South Carolina 29 Akron Akron
Appalachian St. 17.5 Louisiana Appalachian St.
Middle Tenn. 2.5 UAB UAB
Stanford 2.5 California California
Central Florida 3.5 Memphis Central Florida
Alabama 13 Georgia Georgia
Boise St. 2.5 Fresno St. Fresno St.
Clemson 26.5 Pittsburgh Clemson
Ohio St. 14 Northwestern Northwestern
Straight Up All Games Percent Best Bets
Last Week 40-24 62.50% 5-0
Season 295-112 72.48% 27-8
Vs. Spread
Last Week 26-35-3 42.97% 3-2
Season 185-212-10 47.38% 15-20

After another week of less than spectacular performance against the spread, I’ve decided to permanently change the name of my predictions posts to “Ignore These Predictions.”

As I mentioned last week, I’ve always been frank about xHPI’s limitations as a tool for predictions. There are a number of reasons why, but one of the biggest is that xHPI, being based only on past performance, does not take into account coaching changes, injuries, or weather conditions. At least one of this week’s games highlights this limitation. Central Florida is favored over Memphis by 3.5 points, but xHPI has UCF favored by more than 17 points. Knights quarterback McKenzie Milton was injured in the last game and will not play this week, so UCF is essentially a different team from the one that has played every other game this season, The oddsmakers can take this fact into account, but xHPI does not.

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Rankings through November 24, 2018

Rank Team Score LW Spread Points
1 Alabama 3685.14 1 107.61
2 Clemson 3621.37 2 105.74
3 Georgia 3466.69 3 101.23
4 Notre Dame 3249.10 5 94.87
5 Michigan 3195.23 4 93.3
6 Oklahoma 3113.41 6 90.91
7 Central Florida 3065.78 7 89.52
8 Ohio State 3060.47 11 89.37
9 LSU 3031.37 8 88.52
10 Missouri 3018.76 14 88.15
11 Fresno State 2997.21 10 87.52
12 Washington 2992.00 13 87.37
13 West Virginia 2986.07 9 87.19
14 Iowa 2958.94 12 86.4
15 Texas A&M 2943.10 15 85.94
16 Penn State 2939.99 23 85.85
17 Kentucky 2930.06 17 85.56
18 Mississippi State 2918.72 22 85.23
19 Florida 2912.97 20 85.06
20 Appalachian State 2907.48 26 84.9
21 Utah 2894.27 18 84.51
22 Cincinnati 2882.53 24 84.17
23 Boise State 2875.25 25 83.96
24 Auburn 2867.21 16 83.72
25 Texas 2863.76 19 83.62
26 Washington State 2833.56 21 82.74
27 Utah State 2807.08 27 81.97
28 South Carolina 2776.37 28 81.07
29 Miami, FL 2750.72 40 80.32
30 Army 2738.52 31 79.96
31 Syracuse 2727.16 37 79.63
32 Stanford 2704.76 36 78.98
33 Iowa State 2694.78 33 78.69
34 Northwestern 2692.12 29 78.61
35 North Carolina State 2674.60 38 78.1
36 Michigan St. 2669.53 30 77.95
37 Minnesota 2643.67 51 77.2
38 Vanderbilt 2641.85 55 77.14
39 Buffalo 2639.95 43 77.09
40 Oregon 2637.02 49 77
41 Troy 2632.44 39 76.87
42 Temple 2627.12 46 76.71
43 Ohio 2624.95 53 76.65
44 Virginia 2621.41 35 76.55
45 Oklahoma State 2602.62 44 76
46 UAB 2599.21 34 75.9
47 Purdue 2587.79 56 75.56
48 BYU 2583.79 57 75.45
49 Wisconsin 2583.38 42 75.43
50 Marshall 2581.13 60 75.37
51 Georgia Southern 2580.31 59 75.34
52 Duke 2578.35 32 75.29
53 Arizona State 2575.58 54 75.21
54 Boston College 2571.21 48 75.08
55 Pittsburgh 2567.34 41 74.97
56 Houston 2564.08 45 74.87
57 Memphis 2556.74 61 74.66
58 Georgia Tech 2546.30 52 74.35
59 Texas Tech 2541.62 50 74.22
60 North Texas 2540.98 47 74.2
61 California 2531.97 62 73.93
62 Texas Christian 2510.84 67 73.32
63 Eastern Michigan 2481.43 64 72.46
64 Middle Tennessee 2479.64 83 72.41
65 Tennessee 2478.11 58 72.36
66 USC 2463.78 68 71.94
67 Toledo 2454.74 73 71.68
68 Indiana 2453.74 66 71.65
69 Virginia Tech 2425.45 71 70.82
70 Northern Illinois 2415.08 63 70.52
71 San Diego State 2414.65 65 70.51
72 Miami, OH 2411.53 77 70.42
73 Air Force 2410.22 70 70.38
74 Nebraska 2407.86 76 70.31
75 Arkansas State 2405.83 78 70.25
76 Florida International 2398.52 79 70.04
77 Arizona 2357.87 80 68.85
78 Nevada 2353.42 75 68.72
79 Colorado 2348.24 74 68.57
80 Wake Forest 2343.52 92 68.43
81 Maryland 2341.37 69 68.37
82 Florida Atlantic 2340.43 81 68.34
83 UCLA 2331.06 82 68.07
84 Tulane 2310.88 84 67.48
85 Mississippi 2309.62 72 67.44
86 Southern Mississippi 2303.68 85 67.27
87 Baylor 2291.39 90 66.91
88 Kansas State 2285.69 86 66.74
89 Wyoming 2244.64 95 65.54
90 Western Michigan 2242.58 91 65.48
91 Louisiana 2225.07 93 64.97
92 SMU 2212.39 88 64.6
93 Louisiana Tech 2195.88 87 64.12
94 Hawaii 2187.16 98 63.87
95 South Florida 2181.98 89 63.71
96 North Carolina 2163.06 96 63.16
97 Florida State 2161.92 97 63.13
98 Louisiana-Monroe 2153.02 94 62.87
99 Charlotte 2122.02 106 61.96
100 Navy 2084.64 103 60.87
101 Coastal Carolina 2080.90 100 60.76
102 Kansas 2076.91 102 60.65
103 Akron 2065.69 101 60.32
104 Massachusetts 2039.84 105 59.56
105 Arkansas 2025.31 99 59.14
106 Old Dominion 2013.96 104 58.81
107 Ball State 2007.34 107 58.61
108 Tulsa 2003.93 110 58.51
109 Liberty 1991.25 108 58.14
110 UNLV 1987.53 113 58.04
111 Illinois 1965.98 111 57.41
112 Western Kentucky 1918.61 120 56.02
113 East Carolina 1894.93 109 55.33
114 New Mexico 1877.84 112 54.83
115 Oregon State 1870.93 115 54.63
116 Bowling Green 1867.19 114 54.52
117 Kent State 1858.36 119 54.26
118 Georgia State 1853.27 117 54.12
119 South Alabama 1849.41 123 54
120 Colorado State 1835.47 121 53.6
121 Texas State 1833.26 118 53.53
122 Central Michigan 1805.21 116 52.71
123 San Jose State 1789.60 124 52.26
124 Louisville 1781.90 122 52.03
125 Rutgers 1755.17 126 51.25
126 New Mexico State 1711.79 125 49.98
127 Rice 1660.97 128 48.5
128 Texas-San Antonio 1595.45 130 46.59
129 Connecticut 1567.60 127 45.77
130 UTEP 1541.82 129 45.02
Home Field Advantage 2.5781

The playoff picture becomes clearer – With Michigan’s loss to Ohio State, Notre Dame moves into the final playoff spot, and opens up a gap between itself and the teams behind it. While Michigan is only 50 points behind, its score will not change much. While #6 Oklahoma, #7 Central Florida, and #8 Ohio State all could pick up points in conference championship games, those teams would need complete blowout victories to have any chance of reaching the top 4. Similarly, while we know that either Alabama or Georgia will lose in the SEC Championship game, both have scores so high that it is unlikely, if not impossible, for either to drop below #4.

Why didn’t Michigan drop further? – Michigan drops only to #5 in the rankings. And while they almost certainly cannot move into the top four, it may be troubling to some–especially fans of Oklahoma, Central Florida, and Ohio State–that they did not drop further. Big movements don’t happen much in xHPI rankings late in the season. Given that the scores are based on averages over several games, the large denominator makes all movements smaller late in the season. Further, while those of us who endured the torture that was the game saw how complete the Ohio State’s victory was, the high overall score actually helped Michigan in xHPI’s calculations, since it’s based on the percentage of total points scored by each time. Therefore, xHPI generally treats a 23-0 victory as more of a blowout than a 62-39 victory. So while xHPI punished Michigan for the loss, its was a relatively light punishment.

Ummm…Missouri? – xHPI has had the Tigers in its rankings for a few weeks now, and this week they have climbed all the way to #10. Mizzou remains unranked in the AP Top 25. Missouri’s season looks much like its 2017, when it started slowly and then went on a winning streak at the end of the season. With victories over Florida, Purdue, and Memphis, plus a narrow loss to Kentucky and relatively strong showings against Alabama and Georgia, Missouri’s performance deserves a ranking, according to xHPI.

Non-Power 5 watch – As noted above, UCF is in striking distance of the playoff. Fresno State experienced a pitfall of being in a non-Power 5 conference, dropping in the rankings despite winning, due largely to the quality of its opponent. Other teams in the rankings but not in a Power 5 conference are Appalachian State (#20), Cincinnati (#22), and Boise State (#23).

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