Rankings through December 3, 2016

Rank Team Score LW Spread Points
1 Alabama 3731.54 1 108.96
2 Michigan 3386.51 2 98.89
3 Ohio State 3383.07 3 98.79
4 Clemson 3246.06 4 94.78
5 Washington 3233.82 5 94.43
6 Wisconsin 3088.99 6 90.2
7 LSU 3068.11 7 89.59
8 Auburn 3048.12 9 89.01
9 USC 3046.08 10 88.95
10 Louisville 3016.51 11 88.08
11 Western Michigan 3000.06 12 87.6
12 Oklahoma 2979.13 14 86.99
13 Colorado 2976.55 8 86.92
14 Penn State 2956.07 17 86.32
15 Miami, FL 2934.24 15 85.68
16 Boise State 2929.34 18 85.54
17 Florida State 2925.49 16 85.42
18 Temple 2908.54 21 84.93
19 Texas A&M 2897.85 19 84.62
20 Virginia Tech 2885.53 20 84.26
21 Florida 2883.37 13 84.19
22 Western Kentucky 2834.74 22 82.77
23 San Diego State 2804.32 26 81.89
24 Washington State 2803.35 23 81.86
25 Memphis 2797.11 24 81.68
26 South Florida 2781.67 27 81.22
27 Stanford 2769.51 30 80.87
28 Iowa 2765.81 29 80.76
29 West Virginia 2762.95 28 80.68
30 Oklahoma State 2739.95 25 80.01
31 Pittsburgh 2726.70 34 79.62
32 Tennessee 2726.42 33 79.61
33 Houston 2724.61 32 79.56
34 Toledo 2722.58 31 79.5
35 Appalachian State 2721.31 35 79.46
36 Kansas State 2713.84 39 79.24
37 BYU 2697.49 36 78.77
38 Mississippi 2658.52 41 77.63
39 Utah 2651.11 40 77.41
40 North Carolina 2637.31 42 77.01
41 Troy 2633.35 38 76.89
42 Air Force 2630.83 43 76.82
43 Colorado State 2624.83 45 76.64
44 Tulsa 2622.54 44 76.58
45 Minnesota 2619.64 47 76.49
46 Louisiana Tech 2604.95 46 76.06
47 Nebraska 2604.31 49 76.05
48 Notre Dame 2602.90 48 76
49 Georgia Tech 2591.48 51 75.67
50 Navy 2590.11 37 75.63
51 Arkansas 2587.49 50 75.55
52 Northwestern 2577.31 52 75.26
53 North Carolina State 2567.03 53 74.96
54 Wyoming 2549.97 54 74.46
55 Central Florida 2549.54 55 74.45
56 Georgia 2541.61 56 74.22
57 Baylor 2474.11 58 72.24
58 Vanderbilt 2470.53 59 72.14
59 Texas Christian 2435.15 57 71.11
60 Mississippi State 2423.26 60 70.76
61 Ohio 2417.30 62 70.59
62 Texas 2415.03 61 70.52
63 California 2407.39 63 70.3
64 Eastern Michigan 2399.68 67 70.07
65 Texas Tech 2396.21 65 69.97
66 Middle Tenneseee 2392.95 68 69.87
67 Old Dominion 2388.02 66 69.73
68 Arkansas State 2387.51 64 69.72
69 Michigan St. 2378.58 69 69.45
70 Kentucky 2376.24 70 69.39
71 New Mexico 2361.29 71 68.95
72 Indiana 2354.34 72 68.75
73 Army 2349.61 75 68.61
74 UCLA 2346.36 73 68.51
75 Northern Illinois 2341.67 74 68.38
76 Georgia Southern 2334.66 83 68.17
77 Oregon State 2326.23 77 67.93
78 Texas-San Antonio 2318.80 78 67.71
79 Missouri 2316.94 76 67.65
80 Central Michigan 2315.78 80 67.62
81 Southern Mississippi 2308.95 79 67.42
82 Oregon 2284.85 81 66.72
83 Wake Forest 2281.07 82 66.61
84 Duke 2276.88 84 66.48
85 Arizona State 2267.80 85 66.22
86 South Carolina 2245.81 86 65.58
87 Miami, OH 2234.44 87 65.25
88 Iowa State 2211.75 89 64.58
89 Utah State 2210.11 88 64.54
90 SMU 2200.97 90 64.27
91 Idaho 2190.40 97 63.96
92 South Alabama 2189.66 91 63.94
93 Maryland 2168.65 92 63.32
94 Louisiana-Lafayette 2137.65 101 62.42
95 Boston College 2131.38 93 62.24
96 Ball State 2129.03 94 62.17
97 Tulane 2099.77 98 61.31
98 Syracuse 2099.10 96 61.29
99 East Carolina 2072.04 99 60.5
100 Nevada 2062.69 100 60.23
101 Cincinnati 2062.08 102 60.21
102 Georgia State 2052.97 95 59.95
103 UNLV 2051.11 103 59.89
104 Akron 2038.22 104 59.52
105 Kent State 2012.75 108 58.77
106 Arizona 2012.73 107 58.77
107 Virginia 2011.52 105 58.74
108 Bowling Green 2011.30 106 58.73
109 North Texas 1982.67 109 57.89
110 Purdue 1974.88 110 57.67
111 Hawaii 1952.19 111 57
112 Illinois 1944.37 112 56.78
113 Florida International 1924.71 113 56.2
114 Charlotte 1924.25 115 56.19
115 San Jose State 1919.41 114 56.05
116 Massachusetts 1910.63 116 55.79
117 Marshall 1891.26 117 55.22
118 New Mexico State 1873.68 122 54.71
119 UTEP 1861.13 119 54.35
120 Kansas 1856.35 118 54.21
121 Rice 1848.26 121 53.97
122 Fresno State 1830.10 123 53.44
123 Connecticut 1799.43 124 52.54
124 Florida Atlantic 1790.36 125 52.28
125 Louisiana-Monroe 1788.97 120 52.24
126 Buffalo 1770.70 126 51.7
127 Rutgers 1639.13 127 47.86
128 Texas State 1515.24 128 44.25
Home Field Advantage: 3.2636

The playoff selection committee got the only thing that matters right: they selected Alabama for the playoffs. After this week’s games, Alabama widened the gap between itself and the rest of the field. According to xHPI’s calculated point spreads, Alabama would be favored by more than 10 points over any other team. Alabama is so far ahead of any other team that xHPI is confident that they will win the national title, so it is virtually immaterial what other teams are in the playoff.

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Predictions for Games of December 3, 2016

Again, I hope you weren’t relying on my posting my predictions to place bets, since I didn’t post these predictions until after the Friday games were played (of course, all you need to calculate point spreads is right there on the rankings page). Of course, I’ve advised you before not to bet based on my predictions, although that advice is looking less strong now that xHPI has recorded its third straight week of winning predictions (see below).

Here are the predictions:

Favorite Margin Underdog
W. Michigan 17.29 Ohio
Washington 2.46 Colorado
Kansas State 0.64 TCU
Troy 8.05 Georgia Southern
Temple 1.55 Navy
Western Kentucky 8.91 Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma 8.01 Oklahoma State
South Alabama 12.95 New Mexico State
Louisiana-Lafayette 2.92 Louisiana-Monroe
West Virginia 11.72 Baylor
Alabama 21.83 Florida
Idaho 2.89 Georgia State
Arkansas State 23.43 Texas State
San Diego State 3.36 Wyoming
Clemson 10.71 Virginia Tech
Wisconsin 6.01 Penn State

 

As mentioned above, last week was again strong for xHPI’s predictions. xHPI went 33-26-2 against the spread, and 39-22 straight-up. For the three weeks I’ve been tracking predictions, xHPI is 94-78-5 against the spread (54.65%) and 115-62 straight-up (64.97%).

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Rankings through November 26, 2016

Rank Team Score LW Spread Points
1 Alabama 3713.39 1 108.43
2 Michigan 3389.49 3 98.97
3 Ohio State 3384.20 2 98.82
4 Clemson 3256.36 4 95.09
5 Washington 3155.13 9 92.13
6 Wisconsin 3133.71 5 91.5
7 LSU 3078.40 10 89.89
8 Colorado 3070.96 8 89.67
9 Auburn 3064.57 6 89.49
10 USC 3047.65 12 88.99
11 Louisville 3024.36 7 88.31
12 Western Michigan 3010.37 16 87.9
13 Florida 2965.66 11 86.6
14 Oklahoma 2954.48 14 86.27
15 Miami, FL 2940.81 17 85.87
16 Florida State 2937.66 22 85.78
17 Penn State 2927.83 18 85.49
18 Boise State 2919.58 15 85.25
19 Texas A&M 2901.22 13 84.72
20 Virginia Tech 2889.68 21 84.38
21 Temple 2842.15 23 82.99
22 Western Kentucky 2815.81 34 82.22
23 Washington State 2803.74 20 81.87
24 Memphis 2800.15 31 81.76
25 Oklahoma State 2791.63 24 81.52
26 San Diego State 2788.95 19 81.44
27 South Florida 2788.16 29 81.41
28 West Virginia 2776.99 32 81.09
29 Iowa 2774.88 37 81.03
30 Stanford 2772.82 25 80.97
31 Toledo 2729.66 26 79.71
32 Houston 2728.13 33 79.66
33 Tennessee 2727.10 27 79.63
34 Pittsburgh 2726.39 28 79.61
35 Appalachian State 2715.06 38 79.28
36 BYU 2702.73 44 78.92
37 Navy 2677.34 47 78.18
38 Troy 2669.82 43 77.96
39 Kansas State 2656.28 41 77.56
40 Utah 2653.43 42 77.48
41 Mississippi 2653.29 30 77.48
42 North Carolina 2643.02 36 77.18
43 Air Force 2642.77 55 77.17
44 Tulsa 2632.17 40 76.86
45 Colorado State 2630.28 56 76.8
46 Louisiana Tech 2622.42 39 76.57
47 Minnesota 2621.89 48 76.56
48 Notre Dame 2613.06 46 76.3
49 Nebraska 2606.22 35 76.1
50 Arkansas 2599.18 45 75.9
51 Georgia Tech 2586.65 50 75.53
52 Northwestern 2581.13 52 75.37
53 North Carolina State 2575.90 57 75.22
54 Wyoming 2562.38 49 74.82
55 Central Florida 2546.68 51 74.36
56 Georgia 2539.48 53 74.15
57 Texas Christian 2522.64 60 73.66
58 Baylor 2487.24 54 72.63
59 Vanderbilt 2480.10 63 72.42
60 Mississippi State 2431.30 73 70.99
61 Texas 2421.90 59 70.72
62 Ohio 2418.12 65 70.61
63 California 2406.97 78 70.28
64 Arkansas State 2406.67 58 70.27
65 Texas Tech 2399.66 72 70.07
66 Old Dominion 2398.61 66 70.04
67 Eastern Michigan 2396.14 68 69.97
68 Middle Tenneseee 2395.51 64 69.95
69 Michigan St. 2381.55 62 69.54
70 Kentucky 2380.06 69 69.5
71 New Mexico 2364.71 87 69.05
72 Indiana 2358.11 67 68.86
73 UCLA 2355.74 61 68.79
74 Northern Illinois 2344.77 80 68.47
75 Army 2344.57 77 68.46
76 Missouri 2333.80 81 68.15
77 Oregon State 2327.30 84 67.96
78 Texas-San Antonio 2325.99 82 67.92
79 Southern Mississippi 2316.76 89 67.65
80 Central Michigan 2316.34 71 67.64
81 Oregon 2291.17 75 66.9
82 Wake Forest 2285.86 74 66.75
83 Georgia Southern 2282.48 83 66.65
84 Duke 2280.51 79 66.59
85 Arizona State 2274.12 76 66.4
86 South Carolina 2259.67 70 65.98
87 Miami, OH 2240.07 91 65.41
88 Utah State 2217.83 88 64.76
89 Iowa State 2217.65 86 64.76
90 SMU 2206.44 85 64.43
91 South Alabama 2175.23 90 63.52
92 Maryland 2170.30 92 63.37
93 Boston College 2138.62 99 62.45
94 Ball State 2137.20 97 62.41
95 Georgia State 2113.64 96 61.72
96 Syracuse 2104.10 98 61.44
97 Idaho 2101.19 101 61.35
98 Tulane 2097.69 102 61.25
99 East Carolina 2073.74 95 60.55
100 Nevada 2064.46 111 60.28
101 Louisiana-Lafayette 2061.75 107 60.2
102 Cincinnati 2061.27 104 60.19
103 UNLV 2048.99 93 59.83
104 Akron 2036.45 103 59.46
105 Virginia 2018.88 94 58.95
106 Bowling Green 2013.92 105 58.81
107 Arizona 2011.78 113 58.74
108 Kent State 2009.54 106 58.68
109 North Texas 1989.41 100 58.09
110 Purdue 1976.72 110 57.72
111 Hawaii 1959.87 116 57.23
112 Illinois 1948.28 109 56.89
113 Florida International 1926.39 112 56.25
114 San Jose State 1925.90 117 56.24
115 Charlotte 1923.19 115 56.16
116 Massachusetts 1916.99 114 55.98
117 Marshall 1896.49 108 55.38
118 Kansas 1862.16 119 54.38
119 UTEP 1860.72 125 54.33
120 Louisiana-Monroe 1849.94 122 54.02
121 Rice 1849.80 118 54.01
122 New Mexico State 1843.52 121 53.83
123 Fresno State 1834.13 123 53.56
124 Connecticut 1803.37 120 52.66
125 Florida Atlantic 1792.02 124 52.33
126 Buffalo 1770.52 127 51.7
127 Rutgers 1638.33 126 47.84
128 Texas State 1492.48 128 43.58
Home Field Advantage: 3.2619

In the previous two weeks, xHPI’s top four closely resembled the top four in the college football playoff (CFP) standings. But I am confident that when the CFP standings are announced tomorrow (Tuesday), there will not be a lot of similarity to xHPI’s top four.

Alabama will almost certainly be at the top of both rankings. xHPI rates the Crimson Tide now nearly a ten-point favorite over any other team. Clemson is also in xHPI’s hypothetical playoff at #4, and will likely remain in the CFP playoff picture, but probably at higher than #4.

The result of the Michigan-Ohio State game is what creates the likely divergence between xHPI and the CFP standings. Not only does xHPI keep Ohio State and Michigan both in the top four, but Michigan actually leapfrogged Ohio State into the #2 position, despite losing the head-to-head battle. This counter-intuitive result may prompt claims that the system is rigged and demands for a recount.

Since this result appeared strange, I double-checked my calculations, and looked into the numbers to see exactly how this could have happened. Since the game went into overtime, the game scores (refer to the Technical Notes for an explanation) for each team were very close to one another (Ohio State got 52.13 points for the win, compared to Michigan’s 47.87). The initial quality ratings (IQR) of the two teams were very similar, as well, with Ohio State holding a slight edge over Michigan. This means that Michigan’s slightly lower game score could possibly result in a higher rating score for that game when multiplied by Ohio State’s IQR. I thought it might have been possible that the result of the game increased Ohio State’s IQR even more, giving Michigan a bump in the final rating. However, when I looked at the points each team earned for the game (the product of the IQR and the game score), Ohio State earned 3,687.03 points compared to Michigan’s 3,454.02 points. So based on the game alone, both teams’ scores should have increased (each teams’s game result was higher than its average of its previous 11 games). However, despite this high game result, both teams’ scores went down–Michigan’s by 9.19 points, and Ohio State’s by 19.73 points.

Therefore, the game itself had less impact on the standings than did changes to the results of previous games, due to the ever-changing IQRs of each team’s other 11 opponents. Both had drops in their scores, due probably to the outcome of their common Big Ten opponents. Michigan was able to mitigate that drop due to big wins by a couple of its non-conference opponents (most notably Colorado). Ohio State’s signature win was against idle Oklahoma, so their result in this game did not change significantly. That difference alone was likely enough to move Michigan ahead of Colorado.

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Predictions for Games of November 26, 2016

If you were counting on using my predictions to place your bets, I guess you’re out of luck, since I’m posting this on Saturday evening.  Or, more appropriately, you’re in luck, since xHPI has been an unreliable source of predictions over the past few years. At any rate, here are this week’s predictions.

Ohio 13.31 Akron
Miami, OH 6.09 Ball State
E. Michigan 3.58 C. Michigan
Texas A&M 1.35 LSU
North Carolina 9.49 NC State
N. Illinois 6.17 Kent State
Memphis 3.37 Houston
Arkansas 6.91 Missouri
Bowling Green 14.74 Buffalo
Washington 2.65 Washington State
Boise State 8.99 Air Force
Texas 3.78 TCU
Iowa 1.95 Nebraska
Louisiana Tech 9.99 Southern Miss
W. Michigan 8.08 Toledo
Baylor 2.42 Texas Tech
Tulsa 21.76 Cincinnati
Arizona State 8.05 Arizona
Virginia Tech 25.01 Virginia
Kansas State 27.00 Kansas
Louisiana-Lafayette 11.32 Arkansas State
Georgia 2.11 Georgia Tech
South Florida 12.50 Central Florida
Northwestern 21.60 Illinois
Louisville 24.63 Kentucky
Ohio State 3.42 Michigan
Indiana 15.86 Purdue
Maryland 18.66 Rutgers
Pittsburgh 23.48 Syracuse
Wake Forest 10.78 Boston College
Navy 7.29 SMU
Wisconsin 18.35 Minnesota
USC 14.35 Notre Dame
Mississippi 15.22 Mississippi State
South Alabama 1.14 Idaho
Fresno State 1.74 San Jose State
West Virginia 11.26 Iowa State
Miami, FL 21.58 Duke
Old Dominion 16.16 Fla. International
Penn State 16.19 Michigan State
Alabama 20.08 Auburn
Troy 30.37 Texas State
Appalachian St. 21.15 New Mexico St.
Nevada 9.10 UNLV
North Texas 5.17 UTEP
Tulane 2.50 Connecticut
Oregon State 1.76 Oregon
Middle Tenn. 22.18 Fla. Atlantic
UCLA 0.85 California
W. Kentucky 19.43 Marshall
Texas-San Antonio 13.86 Charlotte
Colorado 15.40 Utah
Tennessee 6.53 Vanderbilt
Temple 23.72 E. Carolina
Clemson 28.39 South Carolina
Stanford 30.62 Rice
Florida 2.82 Florida State
San Diego State 13.91 Colorado State
Wyoming 7.82 New Mexico
BYU 15.61 Utah State
Hawaii 2.04 Marshall

 

xHPI had its second straight winning week last week. Through two weeks xHPI is 61-52-3 against the spread, and 76-40 straight-up.

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Rankings through November 19, 206

Rank Team Score LW Spread Points
1 Alabama 3717.83 1 108.56
2 Ohio State 3403.93 3 99.39
3 Michigan 3398.68 2 99.24
4 Clemson 3216.41 5 93.92
5 Wisconsin 3142.69 6 91.77
6 Auburn 3142.28 8 91.75
7 Louisville 3094.04 4 90.35
8 Colorado 3084.38 10 90.06
9 Washington 3079.72 9 89.93
10 LSU 3065.28 7 89.51
11 Florida 3056.87 14 89.26
12 USC 3019.21 13 88.16
13 Texas A&M 2999.52 12 87.59
14 Oklahoma 2966.43 18 86.62
15 Boise State 2965.97 15 86.61
16 Western Michigan 2950.16 11 86.14
17 Miami, FL 2941.80 20 85.9
18 Penn State 2895.58 17 84.55
19 San Diego State 2888.30 19 84.34
20 Washington State 2877.11 16 84.01
21 Virginia Tech 2862.23 22 83.58
22 Florida State 2848.14 25 83.17
23 Temple 2816.78 28 82.25
24 Oklahoma State 2800.98 31 81.79
25 Stanford 2798.69 26 81.72
26 Toledo 2785.18 33 81.33
27 Tennessee 2783.36 29 81.27
28 Pittsburgh 2772.04 38 80.94
29 South Florida 2759.41 27 80.57
30 Mississippi 2755.07 23 80.45
31 Memphis 2754.50 37 80.43
32 West Virginia 2751.45 21 80.34
33 Houston 2750.93 34 80.33
34 Western Kentucky 2748.54 36 80.26
35 Nebraska 2735.67 40 79.88
36 North Carolina 2713.57 35 79.24
37 Iowa 2690.28 44 78.56
38 Appalachian State 2686.07 30 78.43
39 Louisiana Tech 2677.42 41 78.18
40 Tulsa 2672.69 47 78.04
41 Kansas State 2669.03 48 77.94
42 Utah 2668.82 32 77.93
43 Troy 2668.63 24 77.92
44 BYU 2652.36 46 77.45
45 Arkansas 2650.89 43 77.41
46 Notre Dame 2639.79 45 77.08
47 Navy 2631.31 50 76.83
48 Minnesota 2626.44 54 76.69
49 Wyoming 2619.04 49 76.48
50 Georgia Tech 2595.95 51 75.8
51 Central Florida 2581.56 39 75.38
52 Northwestern 2580.81 42 75.36
53 Georgia 2556.02 58 74.64
54 Baylor 2548.61 52 74.42
55 Air Force 2546.18 53 74.35
56 Colorado State 2523.83 61 73.7
57 North Carolina State 2500.84 55 73.02
58 Arkansas State 2479.51 79 72.4
59 Texas 2478.24 56 72.36
60 Texas Christian 2460.64 57 71.85
61 UCLA 2458.91 59 71.8
62 Michigan St. 2453.16 63 71.63
63 Vanderbilt 2447.77 80 71.47
64 Middle Tenneseee 2417.34 68 70.59
65 Ohio 2389.38 62 69.77
66 Old Dominion 2380.56 64 69.51
67 Indiana 2375.91 72 69.38
68 Eastern Michigan 2366.55 73 69.1
69 Kentucky 2362.71 74 68.99
70 South Carolina 2356.21 70 68.8
71 Central Michigan 2355.97 76 68.79
72 Texas Tech 2353.79 60 68.73
73 Mississippi State 2346.06 69 68.5
74 Wake Forest 2331.97 67 68.09
75 Oregon 2326.59 78 67.94
76 Arizona State 2325.55 66 67.91
77 Army 2320.05 84 67.75
78 California 2317.86 71 67.68
79 Duke 2314.86 65 67.59
80 Northern Illinois 2303.38 85 67.26
81 Missouri 2302.27 82 67.23
82 Texas-San Antonio 2289.97 77 66.87
83 Georgia Southern 2289.81 75 66.86
84 Oregon State 2274.87 88 66.43
85 SMU 2269.54 86 66.27
86 Iowa State 2253.92 101 65.81
87 New Mexico 2239.52 83 65.39
88 Utah State 2229.67 89 65.11
89 Southern Mississippi 2223.44 81 64.92
90 South Alabama 2204.13 93 64.36
91 Miami, OH 2203.67 90 64.35
92 Maryland 2159.01 87 63.04
93 UNLV 2141.26 97 62.52
94 Virginia 2117.87 92 61.84
95 East Carolina 2116.42 91 61.8
96 Georgia State 2113.99 103 61.73
97 Ball State 2107.34 98 61.53
98 Syracuse 2079.67 94 60.73
99 Boston College 2074.68 107 60.58
100 North Texas 2058.65 110 60.11
101 Idaho 2053.12 102 59.95
102 Tulane 2049.51 95 59.85
103 Akron 2045.61 100 59.73
104 Cincinnati 2039.53 96 59.55
105 Bowling Green 1995.37 116 58.26
106 Kent State 1980.00 99 57.82
107 Louisiana-Lafayette 1979.93 104 57.81
108 Marshall 1971.19 106 57.56
109 Illinois 1953.02 105 57.03
110 Purdue 1944.79 112 56.79
111 Nevada 1941.48 115 56.69
112 Florida International 1939.10 117 56.62
113 Arizona 1938.00 108 56.59
114 Massachusetts 1937.53 109 56.58
115 Charlotte 1927.24 113 56.28
116 Hawaii 1895.60 114 55.35
117 San Jose State 1871.59 119 54.65
118 Rice 1861.87 122 54.37
119 Kansas 1856.42 123 54.21
120 Connecticut 1852.05 111 54.08
121 New Mexico State 1849.76 124 54.01
122 Louisiana-Monroe 1848.61 118 53.98
123 Fresno State 1819.10 121 53.12
124 Florida Atlantic 1769.83 125 51.68
125 UTEP 1769.47 120 51.67
126 Rutgers 1631.79 126 47.65
127 Buffalo 1602.40 127 46.79
128 Texas State 1516.42 128 44.28
Home Field Advantage: 3.2691

 

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Predictions for Game of November 19, 2016

Favorite Margin Underdog
Ohio U. 1.24 Central Michigan
Kent State 3.07 Bowling Green
Toledo 20.91 Ball State
Eastern Michigan 5.18 Northern Illinois
Louisville 13.18 Houston
Troy 18.82 Arkansas State
Memphis 14.20 Cincinnati
Boise State 28.23 UNLV
Rice 1.95 UTEP
Oklahoma State 2.92 TCU
Texas A&M 23.22 Texas-San Antonio
Iowa 15.22 Illinois
Nebraska 15.97 Maryland
Georgia 17.27 Louisiana-Lafayette
Wisconsin 33.32 Purdue
Ohio State 28.08 Michigan State
Baylor 1.92 Kansas State
Miami, FL 7.11 N. Carolina State
Georgia Tech 15.56 Virginia
LSU 7.44 Florida
Boston College 4.22 Connecticut
Georgia Southern 4.50 Georgia State
Middle Tenn. 10.04 Charlotte
Utah 15.52 Oregon
BYU 21.53 Massachusetts
Appalachian State 28.87 Louisiana-Monroe
Pittsburgh 11.72 Duke
Northwestern 0.70 Minnesota
Texas 19.17 Kansas
Colorado 7.01 Washington State
Western Michigan 43.00 Buffalo
San Diego State 6.11 Wyoming
Temple 15.71 Tulane
Michigan 35.68 Indiana
Texas Tech 9.83 Iowa State
Virginia Tech 3.82 Notre Dame
Tennessee 16.42 Missouri
Florida State 17.34 Syracuse
Navy 9.38 East Carolina
New Mexico State 7.78 Texas State
Utah State 6.84 Nevada
Stanford 9.73 California
Southern Miss 6.08 North Texas
Old Dominion 16.23 Florida Atlantic
Fresno State 0.67 Hawaii
South Florida 13.01 SMU
Clemson 22.46 Wake Forest
Arkansas 5.16 Mississippi State
Marshall 2.21 Florida International
Washington 23.29 Arizona State
West Virginia 2.16 Oklahoma
Mississippi 13.51 Vanderbilt
Central Florida 5.32 Tulsa
Penn State 33.24 Rutgers
Colorado State 8.20 New Mexico
Air Force 18.89 San Jose State
Oregon State 9.43 Arizona
USC 11.08 UCLA

Last week, however, was a good week for xHPI, going 30-25-3 against the spread, and 40-18 straight up. I’ve found that xHPI’s performance is not usually very good in the week following a week with a number of upsets. Those upsets tend to introduce errors into the rankings. This week’s start appears to signal that this will be true again, with xHPI starting off 1-5, both against the spread and straight-up, in the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday games.

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Rankings through November 12, 2016

Rank Team Score LW Spread Points*
1 Alabama 3846.20 1 111.92
2 Michigan 3480.17 2 101.27
3 Ohio State 3474.54 3 101.11
4 Louisville 3272.11 5 95.22
5 Clemson 3258.40 4 94.82
6 Wisconsin 3198.69 9 93.08
7 LSU 3138.45 10 91.33
8 Auburn 3095.59 6 90.08
9 Washington 3092.39 7 89.99
10 Colorado 3081.66 8 89.68
11 Western Michigan 3005.05 12 87.45
12 Texas A&M 2996.18 11 87.19
13 USC 2994.57 17 87.14
14 Florida 2982.34 13 86.79
15 Boise State 2975.27 14 86.58
16 Washington State 2940.68 20 85.57
17 Penn State 2927.55 16 85.19
18 Oklahoma 2909.43 22 84.66
19 San Diego State 2898.01 19 84.33
20 Miami, FL 2893.91 23 84.21
21 West Virginia 2883.69 21 83.92
22 Virginia Tech 2868.41 15 83.47
23 Mississippi 2846.20 18 82.82
24 Troy 2837.40 25 82.57
25 Florida State 2833.53 24 82.46
26 Stanford 2790.48 33 81.2
27 South Florida 2788.25 27 81.14
28 Temple 2761.67 26 80.36
29 Tennessee 2740.69 31 79.75
30 Appalachian State 2732.58 29 79.52
31 Oklahoma State 2730.96 37 79.47
32 Utah 2724.45 32 79.28
33 Toledo 2723.50 35 79.25
34 Houston 2719.76 38 79.14
35 North Carolina 2719.44 30 79.14
36 Western Kentucky 2710.75 41 78.88
37 Memphis 2707.36 34 78.78
38 Pittsburgh 2700.69 48 78.59
39 Central Florida 2687.14 39 78.2
40 Nebraska 2679.25 36 77.97
41 Louisiana Tech 2675.20 44 77.85
42 Northwestern 2674.08 46 77.82
43 Arkansas 2650.91 28 77.14
44 Iowa 2646.08 51 77
45 Notre Dame 2637.62 57 76.75
46 BYU 2631.98 42 76.59
47 Tulsa 2604.10 47 75.78
48 Kansas State 2603.84 50 75.77
49 Wyoming 2588.42 45 75.32
50 Navy 2586.46 52 75.27
51 Georgia Tech 2580.18 58 75.08
52 Baylor 2569.94 40 74.79
53 Air Force 2559.42 49 74.48
54 Minnesota 2550.68 43 74.22
55 North Carolina State 2549.73 55 74.2
56 Texas 2533.12 54 73.71
57 Texas Christian 2530.88 53 73.65
58 Georgia 2518.70 68 73.29
59 UCLA 2514.15 66 73.16
60 Texas Tech 2493.56 60 72.56
61 Colorado State 2456.42 61 71.48
62 Ohio 2441.19 59 71.04
63 Michigan St. 2410.01 79 70.13
64 Old Dominion 2402.90 75 69.92
65 Duke 2397.73 77 69.77
66 Arizona State 2391.73 63 69.6
67 Wake Forest 2386.97 62 69.46
68 Middle Tenneseee 2375.06 65 69.11
69 Mississippi State 2373.73 56 69.08
70 South Carolina 2357.19 64 68.59
71 California 2356.43 67 68.57
72 Indiana 2353.57 76 68.49
73 Eastern Michigan 2329.78 80 67.8
74 Kentucky 2327.74 73 67.74
75 Georgia Southern 2303.15 71 67.02
76 Central Michigan 2299.14 82 66.9
77 Texas-San Antonio 2298.00 74 66.87
78 Oregon 2290.73 70 66.66
79 Arkansas State 2290.24 85 66.65
80 Vanderbilt 2282.18 78 66.41
81 Southern Mississippi 2277.90 81 66.29
82 Missouri 2275.79 88 66.23
83 New Mexico 2274.13 84 66.18
84 Army 2267.83 69 65.99
85 Northern Illinois 2251.43 89 65.52
86 SMU 2241.54 93 65.23
87 Maryland 2230.22 72 64.9
88 Oregon State 2217.60 86 64.53
89 Utah State 2207.72 91 64.24
90 Miami, OH 2199.16 92 64
91 East Carolina 2164.70 87 62.99
92 Virginia 2144.98 97 62.42
93 South Alabama 2141.90 94 62.33
94 Syracuse 2138.11 96 62.22
95 Tulane 2122.07 98 61.75
96 Cincinnati 2119.45 90 61.68
97 UNLV 2104.73 105 61.25
98 Ball State 2104.49 102 61.24
99 Kent State 2071.37 83 60.28
100 Akron 2059.59 100 59.93
101 Iowa State 2056.07 104 59.83
102 Idaho 2055.48 108 59.81
103 Georgia State 2048.93 101 59.62
104 Louisiana-Lafayette 2024.59 113 58.92
105 Illinois 2023.32 95 58.88
106 Marshall 2017.76 115 58.72
107 Boston College 2007.74 99 58.43
108 Arizona 1993.20 107 58
109 Massachusetts 1991.82 106 57.96
110 North Texas 1969.47 103 57.31
111 Connecticut 1962.50 110 57.11
112 Purdue 1954.00 109 56.86
113 Charlotte 1930.14 114 56.17
114 Hawaii 1876.92 111 54.62
115 Nevada 1872.93 112 54.5
116 Bowling Green 1866.44 120 54.31
117 Florida International 1842.24 116 53.61
118 Louisiana-Monroe 1840.09 124 53.55
119 San Jose State 1810.82 119 52.69
120 UTEP 1807.60 117 52.6
121 Fresno State 1800.18 121 52.39
122 Rice 1775.02 123 51.65
123 Kansas 1774.67 125 51.64
124 New Mexico State 1750.72 122 50.95
125 Florida Atlantic 1745.44 126 50.79
126 Rutgers 1685.57 118 49.05
127 Buffalo 1627.26 127 47.35
128 Texas State 1583.24 128 46.07
Home Field Advantage: 2.8968

Let’s just end the season now and give the National Championship to Alabama.

After upset losses by previously #2 Michigan, #4 Clemson, and #7 Washington, the gap between Alabama and the rest of the field has widened considerably. Now, according to the Score Points calculation, Alabama would be an 11.65 point favorite over the next-closest team, #2 Michigan. The Wolverines did not drop in the rankings, but their score dropped significantly after losing to Iowa. Michigan barely avoided being passed by #3 Ohio State, but their loss did bring them within the Buckeyes’ home field advantage range, so that xHPI now would favor Ohio State by 2.71 points.

xHPI’s national championship playoff slate would look like this:

Alabama over Louisville by 16.7
Michigan over Ohio State by 0.16

 

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