Final Rankings, 2014-15

Rank Team Score LW
1 Ohio State 3400.01 2
2 Alabama 3374.66 1
3 Oregon 3285.16 4
4 Georgia 3269.02 5
5 Texas Christian 3257.52 8
6 Arkansas 3180.28 6
7 Michigan St. 3130.73 9
8 Mississippi 3111.39 3
9 Mississippi State 3081.40 7
10 Georgia Tech 3058.09 12
11 Auburn 3038.31 10
12 Clemson 3020.20 19
13 Baylor 3015.32 11
14 USC 2995.32 14
15 Marshall 2969.09 18
16 UCLA 2941.82 21
17 Florida State 2937.81 13
18 Stanford 2897.96 25
19 Kansas State 2891.05 16
20 Arizona State 2880.65 24
21 Wisconsin 2877.31 23
22 Louisville 2877.29 26
23 Boise State 2863.60 22
24 LSU 2856.34 20
25 Missouri 2823.21 29
26 Oklahoma 2820.82 15
27 Notre Dame 2789.32 30
28 Utah 2785.03 34
29 Nebraska 2782.51 27
30 Arizona 2781.37 28
31 Miami, FL 2768.77 17
32 Louisiana Tech 2734.43 36
33 Virginia Tech 2720.65 35
34 Tennessee 2720.47 41
35 Texas A&M 2698.77 44
36 Florida 2697.18 43
37 Boston College 2680.35 39
38 BYU 2677.31 31
39 South Carolina 2669.51 49
40 Duke 2664.46 32
41 Minnesota 2651.30 37
42 Pittsburgh 2647.86 33
43 Memphis 2642.60 40
44 Georgia Southern 2618.68 47
45 Utah State 2610.86 50
46 Air Force 2610.61 51
47 West Virginia 2602.29 38
48 Virginia 2590.63 45
49 Colorado State 2569.68 42
50 Cincinnati 2563.25 46
51 Western Kentucky 2554.05 55
52 Navy 2552.93 53
53 Washington 2547.58 48
54 Penn State 2543.44 56
55 North Carolina State 2516.61 57
56 Iowa 2496.42 52
57 Central Florida 2494.22 54
58 San Diego State 2476.05 59
59 Michigan 2449.68 67
60 Western Michigan 2446.79 58
61 California 2443.38 64
62 Northern Illinois 2441.80 60
63 Northwestern 2431.96 63
64 East Carolina 2403.02 65
65 Texas 2402.14 61
66 Maryland 2394.50 62
67 Kentucky 2381.21 70
68 Houston 2371.80 72
69 UAB 2371.58 71
70 Toledo 2365.52 74
71 Rutgers 2358.25 77
72 Arkansas State 2356.84 68
73 Nevada 2355.26 66
74 Louisiana-Lafayette 2353.16 79
75 Rice 2348.57 82
76 Temple 2347.93 73
77 North Carolina 2323.76 69
78 Middle Tenneseee 2311.78 76
79 Oregon State 2304.29 78
80 UTEP 2269.41 75
81 Illinois 2265.03 80
82 Oklahoma State 2261.37 87
83 Central Michigan 2255.60 81
84 Bowling Green 2248.98 88
85 Texas State 2245.65 84
86 Appalachian State 2244.55 85
87 Texas Tech 2222.97 83
88 Washington State 2215.58 89
89 Indiana 2210.12 90
90 Purdue 2183.21 91
91 Old Dominion 2167.33 93
92 Colorado 2163.56 92
93 Fresno State 2163.28 86
94 New Mexico 2137.77 94
95 Akron 2127.42 95
96 Florida International 2124.33 98
97 Syracuse 2111.50 96
98 South Alabama 2096.85 97
99 Ball State 2094.31 99
100 Buffalo 2064.91 100
101 Army 2038.87 104
102 Hawaii 2036.16 101
103 Ohio 2028.89 102
104 Louisiana-Monroe 2028.52 103
105 Texas-San Antonio 2005.44 105
106 Wake Forest 1996.42 107
107 Massachusetts 1964.11 108
108 Iowa State 1954.56 106
109 Miami, OH 1945.47 110
110 North Texas 1936.65 111
111 Florida Atlantic 1932.17 112
112 San Jose State 1926.73 109
113 Southern Mississippi 1888.86 115
114 Kansas 1882.37 113
115 Tulane 1881.76 114
116 UNLV 1862.74 116
117 Vanderbilt 1859.84 118
118 Wyoming 1845.24 117
119 South Florida 1820.92 119
120 Idaho 1815.82 120
121 Kent State 1791.17 121
122 New Mexico State 1757.26 122
123 Troy 1731.91 124
124 Tulsa 1722.90 123
125 Connecticut 1714.23 125
126 Georgia State 1609.40 126
127 Eastern Michigan 1446.35 127
128 SMU 1260.08 128
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National Championship Game Scenarios

10:35 remaining in the first quarter–

I promised this post last week, but just now have been able to run the numbers and post.  In most of the past few years, the national championship game (or what passed for one under the BCS) was relatively unimportant in selecting the xHPI national champion, because one team had a virtually insurmountable lead in the standings. Not so this year.

Ohio State and Oregon are in a virtual tie in the xHPI rankings. Applying the regression formula that I use to turn rating differences into point spreads shows Ohio State to be favored by .18 points. So the changes in the rankings end up being very similar in most of the scenarios that I discuss below; the primary difference is which team–Ohio State or Oregon–moves up.

xHPI is not based on point spreads, per se, but the share of total points scored as of the end of each of the four quarters. The result is a weighted percentage of points scored.  Under this scoring system, a huge blowout usually results in something like an 80/20 split in the share of the score. A 70/30 split is still a blowout, while a 60/40 split can be a comfortable (10 point or so) victory. A close victory–something like 3 to 7 points–might have a 55/45 split, while a smaller victory will be close to 50/50.

Looking at each of the above scenarios shows that either team would pass Alabama (xHPI’s current #1) if it is able to earn 60% of the weighted points. That means something like a 10 point victory would result in the winner being crowned the xHPI national champion.

As I’ve done in years past, at the end of each quarter, I’ll post how the rankings would look if the game ended at that point.

End of First Quarter

Standings if the game ended now:

1 Ohio State 3377.05 2
2 Alabama 3373.11 1
3 Oregon 3289.61 3
4 Georgia 3269.02 4
5 Texas Christian 3257.52 5

A high scoring game may benefit Alabama. A 10-point victory represents a much smaller share of the weighted points scored in a 45-35 game than in a 17-7 game.

End of First Half

Ohio State widens its cushion over would-be #2 Alabama, but could still lose it with a couple of Oregon scores. Oregon, on the other had, is getting dangerously close to dropping to #4.

More pressing for Oregon is the fact that in xHPI, late scores count less than early scores (designed to discourage running up the score and to reward teams that dominate most of a game), so a 10-point victory may not be enough for the Ducks.

1 Ohio State 3385.76 2
2 Alabama 3373.74 1
3 Oregon 3280.27 3
4 Georgia 3269.02 4
5 Texas Christian 3257.52 5

End of Third Quarter

The late touchdown by Ohio State was barely enough to push Ohio State ahead of Alabama. Any score by Oregon, unless answered by Ohio State, will be enough to push Ohio State out of the top spot. On the other side, Oregon will need a monumentally large fourth quarter to claim the top spot.

1 Ohio State 3376.92 2
2 Alabama 3373.10 1
3 Oregon 3289.74 3
4 Georgia 3269.02 4
5 Texas Christian 3257.52 5

9:44 remaining

Before I could finish my calculation that Oregon would have to win by at least 21 points, Ohio State scored again. Oregon would now have to score 35 points in the final nine minutes of this game to claim the top spot in the xHPI rankings.

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Rankings as of January 4, 2015

Below are the rankings through the bowl games, but not including the National Championship game. I plan on posting some scenarios for that game later this week.

The bowl games had some interesting effects on the rankings. xHPI did not support TCU’s claim that they belonged in the playoff, but after their victory over previously #3 Mississippi, they jumped to #5 in the rankings. Oregon moved up to #3, and is now in a virtual tie with Ohio State. While I haven’t done the final calculations yet, it looks like xHPI would favor Ohio State by only about one-fifth of a point in their matchup with Oregon.

To me, one of the most interesting effects of the bowl season is how conference success can affect teams’ rankings. The best way to discern this is to look at how teams that did not play in bowls have moved in the new rankings. One of the biggest movers is Michigan, who moved up seven spaces in the rankings without playing. The Wolverines benefit from an improvement in their strength of schedule due both to victories by non-conference foes Notre Dame and Utah, but also victories by Big Ten opponents Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Their opponents went 6-2 in bowl games, with only Maryland and Minnesota losing.

Here are the rankings after all the bowl games:

Rank Team Score LW
1 Alabama 3370.63 1
2 Ohio State 3337.36 2
3 Oregon 3330.80 4
4 Georgia 3269.02 5
5 Texas Christian 3257.43 8
6 Arkansas 3180.22 6
7 Michigan St. 3129.17 9
8 Mississippi 3111.33 3
9 Mississippi State 3081.35 7
10 Georgia Tech 3058.47 12
11 Auburn 3038.24 10
12 Clemson 3020.69 19
13 Baylor 3015.32 11
14 USC 3002.36 14
15 Marshall 2969.09 18
16 UCLA 2948.64 21
17 Florida State 2939.30 13
18 Stanford 2904.88 25
19 Kansas State 2891.57 16
20 Arizona State 2886.82 24
21 Louisville 2877.77 26
22 Wisconsin 2875.99 23
23 Boise State 2865.89 22
24 LSU 2856.27 20
25 Missouri 2823.06 29
26 Oklahoma 2820.82 15
27 Utah 2791.23 34
28 Notre Dame 2790.29 30
29 Arizona 2789.61 28
30 Nebraska 2782.87 27
31 Miami, FL 2769.09 17
32 Louisiana Tech 2734.40 36
33 Tennessee 2720.43 41
34 Virginia Tech 2714.74 35
35 Texas A&M 2698.75 44
36 Florida 2697.65 43
37 Boston College 2680.68 39
38 BYU 2678.19 31
39 South Carolina 2669.51 49
40 Duke 2664.37 32
41 Pittsburgh 2647.76 33
42 Minnesota 2647.15 37
43 Memphis 2643.14 40
44 Georgia Southern 2618.65 47
45 Utah State 2611.61 50
46 Air Force 2611.07 51
47 West Virginia 2602.19 38
48 Virginia 2591.60 45
49 Colorado State 2571.35 42
50 Cincinnati 2559.62 46
51 Washington 2554.86 48
52 Western Kentucky 2553.96 55
53 Navy 2549.21 53
54 Penn State 2539.69 56
55 North Carolina State 2517.08 57
56 Iowa 2496.22 52
57 Central Florida 2494.16 54
58 San Diego State 2476.36 59
59 California 2450.94 64
60 Western Michigan 2446.73 58
61 Michigan 2446.04 67
62 Northern Illinois 2441.78 60
63 Northwestern 2432.43 63
64 East Carolina 2402.87 65
65 Texas 2402.81 61
66 Maryland 2391.91 62
67 Kentucky 2381.21 70
68 Houston 2371.80 72
69 UAB 2371.58 71
70 Toledo 2365.46 74
71 Nevada 2357.54 66
72 Arkansas State 2356.84 68
73 Rutgers 2356.57 77
74 Louisiana-Lafayette 2353.16 79
75 Rice 2348.57 82
76 Temple 2347.79 73
77 North Carolina 2323.68 69
78 Middle Tenneseee 2311.73 76
79 Oregon State 2309.62 78
80 UTEP 2269.41 75
81 Illinois 2262.97 80
82 Oklahoma State 2262.52 87
83 Central Michigan 2255.60 81
84 Bowling Green 2248.91 88
85 Texas State 2245.58 84
86 Appalachian State 2244.52 85
87 Texas Tech 2222.97 83
88 Washington State 2222.50 89
89 Indiana 2206.11 90
90 Purdue 2183.61 91
91 Colorado 2169.87 92
92 Old Dominion 2167.33 93
93 Fresno State 2164.04 86
94 New Mexico 2138.45 94
95 Akron 2127.37 95
96 Florida International 2124.33 98
97 Syracuse 2111.87 96
98 South Alabama 2096.78 97
99 Ball State 2094.31 99
100 Buffalo 2064.91 100
101 Army 2039.05 104
102 Hawaii 2038.23 101
103 Ohio 2028.86 102
104 Louisiana-Monroe 2028.52 103
105 Texas-San Antonio 2006.78 105
106 Wake Forest 1996.59 107
107 Massachusetts 1964.57 108
108 Iowa State 1954.56 106
109 Miami, OH 1945.35 110
110 North Texas 1936.60 111
111 Florida Atlantic 1932.73 112
112 San Jose State 1927.32 109
113 Southern Mississippi 1888.82 115
114 Kansas 1882.37 113
115 Tulane 1881.70 114
116 UNLV 1863.42 116
117 Vanderbilt 1859.84 118
118 Wyoming 1847.22 117
119 South Florida 1820.83 119
120 Idaho 1815.82 120
121 Kent State 1789.95 121
122 New Mexico State 1757.26 122
123 Troy 1731.91 124
124 Tulsa 1722.90 123
125 Connecticut 1714.22 125
126 Georgia State 1609.83 126
127 Eastern Michigan 1446.63 127
128 SMU 1260.05 128
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Confidence Picks for Bowl Season

I haven’t posted predictions this season. I have been keeping track, and the results have been downright ugly this year. I think it’s particularly dangerous to use xHPI to make bowl predictions, because so many factors other than the relative strength of the teams (coaching changes, extra practice, varying levels of motivation, etc.) come into play in bowl season. But I usually do pretty well with my bowl picks, so I’ve decided to post my predictions for the bowl games here.

I make my confidence picks based on my projected point spreads. Higher confidence scores represent the games I’m more confident in.

Bowl Date XHPI Pick Opponent xHPI Spread Confidence
New Orleans 12/20 Nevada Louisiana-Lafayette 1.44 7
New Mexico 12/20 Utah State UTEP 8.02 30
Las Vegas 12/20 Utah Colorado State 0.71 1
Famous Idaho 12/20 Air Force Western Michigan 2.84 16
Camellia 12/20 Bowling Green South Alabama 3.33 20
Miami Beach 12/22 BYU Memphis 1.16 5
Boca Raton 12/23 Marshall Northern Illinois 13.10 37
Poinsettia 12/23 San Diego State Navy 1.36 6
Bahamas 12/24 Western Kentucky Central Michigan 7.23 29
Hawaii 12/24 Rice Fresno State 0.94 2
Heart of Dallas 12/26 Louisiana Tech Illinois 11.82 36
Quick Lane 12/26 North Carolina Rutgers 2.89 17
Bitcoin 12/26 Central Florida North Carolina State 1.11 4
Military 12/27 Virginia Tech Cincinnati 2.04 12
Sun 12/27 Arizona State Duke 4.19 23
Independence 12/27 Miami, FL South Carolina 10.12 32
Pinstripe 12/27 Boston College Penn State 5.10 25
Holiday 12/27 USC Nebraska 4.57 24
Liberty 12/29 West Virginia Texas A&M 1.45 8
Russell Athletic 12/29 Oklahoma Clemson 1.90 10
Texas 12/29 Arkansas Texas 17.59 38
Music City 12/30 LSU Notre Dame 4.03 22
Belk 12/30 Georgia Louisville 10.66 34
Foster Farms 12/30 Stanford Maryland 11.58 35
Peach 12/31 Mississippi TCU 3.64 21
Fiesta 12/31 Boise State Arizona 1.08 3
Orange 12/31 Mississippi State Georgia Tech 3.14 19
Outback 1/1 Auburn Wisconsin 6.31 26
Cotton 1/1 Michigan State Baylor 2.23 13
Citrus 1/1 Missouri Minnesota 2.44 15
Rose 1/1 Oregon Florida State 7.06 28
Sugar 1/1 Alabama Ohio State 2.36 14
Armed Forces 1/2 Pittsburgh Houston 9.66 31
Tax Slayer 1/2 Tennessee Iowa 3.13 18
Alamo 1/2 Kansas State UCLA 1.99 11
Cactus 1/2 Washington Oklahoma State 10.62 33
Birmingham 1/3 Florida East Carolina 6.79 27
GoDaddy 1/4 Arkansas State Toledo 1.80 9
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Rankings through December 6, 2014

Rank Team Score LW
1 Alabama 3409.58 1
2 Ohio State 3330.19 6
3 Mississippi 3270.56 2
4 Oregon 3255.09 4
5 Georgia 3214.10 3
6 Arkansas 3188.60 5
7 Mississippi State 3145.36 7
8 Texas Christian 3142.90 8
9 Michigan St. 3118.16 9
10 Auburn 3091.55 10
11 Baylor 3051.23 15
12 Georgia Tech 3035.53 11
13 Florida State 3014.02 17
14 USC 2988.41 16
15 Oklahoma 2980.90 13
16 Kansas State 2972.91 14
17 Miami, FL 2954.22 18
18 Marshall 2939.07 19
19 Clemson 2914.90 20
20 LSU 2904.24 21
21 UCLA 2903.72 22
22 Wisconsin 2869.80 12
23 Arizona State 2865.55 24
24 Boise State 2861.65 25
25 Stanford 2846.03 26
26 Louisville 2840.02 29
27 Nebraska 2827.24 28
28 Arizona 2783.11 23
29 Missouri 2782.40 27
30 Notre Dame 2768.04 30
31 BYU 2727.06 31
32 Duke 2719.13 32
33 Pittsburgh 2708.35 33
34 Utah 2701.50 34
35 Virginia Tech 2698.59 41
36 Louisiana Tech 2696.97 37
37 West Virginia 2694.90 36
38 Boston College 2694.33 35
39 Memphis 2685.91 38
40 Minnesota 2679.48 39
41 Tennessee 2676.77 40
42 Florida 2674.84 42
43 Colorado State 2667.58 43
44 Virginia 2626.85 44
45 Cincinnati 2626.70 47
46 Georgia Southern 2619.13 45
47 Washington 2607.47 46
48 South Carolina 2598.20 48
49 Air Force 2583.46 51
50 Utah State 2582.96 50
51 Iowa 2567.07 49
52 Navy 2548.42 52
53 Central Florida 2528.92 54
54 Western Kentucky 2524.61 53
55 Penn State 2512.72 55
56 North Carolina State 2490.79 57
57 Western Michigan 2489.03 58
58 San Diego State 2486.26 56
59 Northern Illinois 2479.51 67
60 Texas 2473.99 59
61 Texas A&M 2445.70 62
62 Maryland 2442.62 65
63 Northwestern 2441.55 61
64 California 2439.29 63
65 East Carolina 2436.53 60
66 Nevada 2434.50 64
67 Michigan 2434.49 66
68 Arkansas State 2392.16 69
69 North Carolina 2389.49 70
70 Kentucky 2373.53 71
71 UAB 2371.34 72
72 Houston 2368.60 68
73 Temple 2363.24 73
74 Toledo 2331.57 74
75 UTEP 2309.84 75
76 Middle Tenneseee 2302.99 77
77 Rutgers 2291.52 78
78 Oregon State 2290.02 79
79 Louisiana-Lafayette 2287.24 80
80 Central Michigan 2271.13 83
81 Rice 2268.11 81
82 Texas Tech 2259.94 82
83 Texas State 2253.07 85
84 Appalachian State 2243.61 86
85 Oklahoma State 2234.18 90
86 Fresno State 2233.97 84
87 Bowling Green 2229.06 76
88 Washington State 2208.39 88
89 Indiana 2198.61 89
90 Purdue 2195.03 87
91 Colorado 2160.99 91
92 Old Dominion 2153.26 92
93 New Mexico 2138.45 93
94 Akron 2133.66 94
95 Illinois 2125.48 95
96 Syracuse 2118.02 97
97 South Alabama 2114.51 98
98 Florida International 2114.17 96
99 Ball State 2098.54 99
100 Buffalo 2066.09 101
101 Hawaii 2047.99 102
102 Ohio 2032.91 103
103 Louisiana-Monroe 2029.04 104
104 Army 2008.54 105
105 Texas-San Antonio 1999.88 106
106 Iowa State 1988.59 100
107 Wake Forest 1983.91 107
108 Massachusetts 1972.22 108
109 Miami, OH 1948.69 110
110 San Jose State 1945.71 109
111 North Texas 1937.38 111
112 Florida Atlantic 1920.41 112
113 Kansas 1902.96 113
114 Tulane 1888.36 116
115 Southern Mississippi 1883.09 114
116 UNLV 1873.45 115
117 Vanderbilt 1851.89 117
118 South Florida 1837.20 118
119 Idaho 1819.57 119
120 Wyoming 1795.19 120
121 Kent State 1787.11 121
122 New Mexico State 1761.22 122
123 Tulsa 1740.57 124
124 Troy 1731.29 125
125 Connecticut 1722.45 123
126 Georgia State 1600.23 126
127 Eastern Michigan 1447.64 127
128 SMU 1268.58 128
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Rankings through November 29, 2014

For only the second time since October 11, the SEC doesn’t occupy all four of the top spots in the xHPI rankings. Alabama’s lead is large enough that it is likely to finish in the top four regardless of the result of the SEC Championship game. Mississippi is also likely safe, since its regular season is done. Ohio State could move into the top four with a big victory over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship.

Rank Team Score LW
1 Alabama 3381.01 1
2 Mississippi 3265.81 3
3 Georgia 3228.50 2
4 Oregon 3195.53 6
5 Arkansas 3178.25 4
6 Ohio State 3163.91 7
7 Mississippi State 3145.75 5
8 Texas Christian 3110.20 13
9 Michigan St. 3103.51 11
10 Auburn 3087.05 8
11 Georgia Tech 3076.17 15
12 Wisconsin 3054.99 12
13 Oklahoma 3054.37 10
14 Kansas State 3038.96 19
15 Baylor 3023.61 9
16 USC 3002.21 21
17 Florida State 2988.67 18
18 Miami, FL 2952.63 14
19 Marshall 2938.62 17
20 Clemson 2918.44 27
21 LSU 2915.37 23
22 UCLA 2912.55 16
23 Arizona 2884.48 24
24 Arizona State 2879.55 20
25 Boise State 2856.54 29
26 Stanford 2849.64 30
27 Missouri 2845.93 28
28 Nebraska 2844.89 25
29 Louisville 2839.49 26
30 Notre Dame 2769.68 22
31 BYU 2731.75 32
32 Duke 2725.80 33
33 Pittsburgh 2714.96 44
34 Utah 2704.25 36
35 Boston College 2698.08 45
36 West Virginia 2694.55 35
37 Louisiana Tech 2690.96 46
38 Memphis 2689.33 40
39 Minnesota 2687.75 38
40 Tennessee 2684.76 31
41 Virginia Tech 2681.00 42
42 Florida 2677.28 34
43 Colorado State 2671.21 37
44 Virginia 2631.37 41
45 Georgia Southern 2618.12 47
46 Washington 2613.83 51
47 Cincinnati 2607.91 52
48 South Carolina 2604.87 39
49 Iowa 2598.95 48
50 Utah State 2588.82 43
51 Air Force 2587.56 55
52 Navy 2543.87 50
53 Western Kentucky 2534.47 63
54 Central Florida 2517.44 59
55 Penn State 2504.21 53
56 San Diego State 2492.79 67
57 North Carolina State 2491.83 71
58 Western Michigan 2488.07 56
59 Texas 2481.27 49
60 East Carolina 2462.96 58
61 Northwestern 2456.82 54
62 Texas A&M 2448.50 61
63 California 2445.68 64
64 Nevada 2445.31 66
65 Maryland 2442.89 60
66 Michigan 2425.55 65
67 Northern Illinois 2409.42 73
68 Houston 2404.52 62
69 Arkansas State 2393.82 68
70 North Carolina 2391.48 57
71 Kentucky 2383.15 70
72 UAB 2369.56 75
73 Temple 2345.77 69
74 Toledo 2335.73 78
75 UTEP 2316.14 80
76 Bowling Green 2311.57 72
77 Middle Tenneseee 2308.24 77
78 Rutgers 2294.13 79
79 Oregon State 2292.14 74
80 Louisiana-Lafayette 2285.12 81
81 Rice 2271.06 76
82 Texas Tech 2268.89 84
83 Central Michigan 2266.32 82
84 Fresno State 2256.75 87
85 Texas State 2253.12 86
86 Appalachian State 2245.38 88
87 Purdue 2213.10 85
88 Washington State 2211.07 83
89 Indiana 2191.11 92
90 Oklahoma State 2183.68 89
91 Colorado 2169.06 93
92 Old Dominion 2153.52 94
93 New Mexico 2145.64 97
94 Akron 2138.69 90
95 Illinois 2135.58 99
96 Florida International 2117.91 95
97 Syracuse 2117.36 91
98 South Alabama 2116.44 98
99 Ball State 2099.18 103
100 Iowa State 2071.90 100
101 Buffalo 2065.98 102
102 Hawaii 2053.83 96
103 Ohio 2032.20 104
104 Louisiana-Monroe 2030.05 106
105 Army 2019.10 107
106 Texas-San Antonio 1999.44 109
107 Wake Forest 1986.33 108
108 Massachusetts 1978.88 105
109 San Jose State 1950.76 101
110 Miami, OH 1942.16 112
111 North Texas 1937.61 111
112 Florida Atlantic 1923.20 114
113 Kansas 1913.44 110
114 Southern Mississippi 1878.66 113
115 UNLV 1872.25 117
116 Tulane 1868.40 116
117 Vanderbilt 1864.10 118
118 South Florida 1839.28 115
119 Idaho 1821.47 119
120 Wyoming 1795.77 121
121 Kent State 1781.27 125
122 New Mexico State 1763.84 122
123 Connecticut 1752.88 120
124 Tulsa 1737.69 124
125 Troy 1734.44 123
126 Georgia State 1601.95 126
127 Eastern Michigan 1445.97 127
128 SMU 1185.60 128
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Rankings through November 22, 2014

With big wins in successive weeks over highly ranked SEC foes, Arkansas has had an almost unprecedented rise in the xHPI rankings for this late in the season, and, at 6-5, would currently be in the running for the college football playoff, based on the xHPI rankings.

Rank Team Score LW
1 Alabama 3433.99 1
2 Georgia 3285.18 3
3 Mississippi 3239.73 2
4 Arkansas 3237.95 11
5 Mississippi State 3229.39 6
6 Oregon 3218.46 7
7 Ohio State 3183.26 4
8 Auburn 3135.88 5
9 Baylor 3089.76 9
10 Oklahoma 3067.90 12
11 Michigan St. 3062.21 15
12 Wisconsin 3062.18 10
13 Texas Christian 3057.18 13
14 Miami, FL 3054.30 8
15 Georgia Tech 3043.40 14
16 UCLA 3015.86 20
17 Marshall 3002.25 19
18 Florida State 2996.31 18
19 Kansas State 2987.10 21
20 Arizona State 2945.86 17
21 USC 2912.39 16
22 Notre Dame 2908.44 22
23 LSU 2901.53 24
24 Arizona 2882.52 29
25 Nebraska 2874.96 23
26 Louisville 2872.97 27
27 Clemson 2866.31 28
28 Missouri 2812.34 33
29 Boise State 2779.42 32
30 Stanford 2766.53 34
31 Tennessee 2759.52 30
32 BYU 2754.95 35
33 Duke 2738.49 25
34 Florida 2725.94 37
35 West Virginia 2722.56 31
36 Utah 2715.44 26
37 Colorado State 2714.96 39
38 Minnesota 2686.12 40
39 South Carolina 2680.34 43
40 Memphis 2674.93 36
41 Virginia 2666.68 55
42 Virginia Tech 2663.00 38
43 Utah State 2659.54 46
44 Pittsburgh 2640.35 52
45 Boston College 2638.26 42
46 Louisiana Tech 2625.18 41
47 Georgia Southern 2614.01 47
48 Iowa 2607.35 49
49 Texas 2590.67 48
50 Navy 2569.54 50
51 Washington 2567.91 53
52 Cincinnati 2565.66 59
53 Penn State 2562.58 44
54 Northwestern 2544.16 56
55 Air Force 2539.15 45
56 Western Michigan 2515.05 61
57 North Carolina 2510.07 69
58 East Carolina 2507.54 66
59 Central Florida 2492.52 51
60 Maryland 2482.39 63
61 Texas A&M 2470.17 64
62 Houston 2459.11 60
63 Western Kentucky 2455.06 75
64 California 2453.79 54
65 Michigan 2441.13 62
66 Nevada 2431.22 57
67 San Diego State 2425.18 76
68 Arkansas State 2404.69 58
69 Temple 2399.26 65
70 Kentucky 2396.31 70
71 North Carolina State 2384.38 72
72 Bowling Green 2355.84 71
73 Northern Illinois 2348.91 78
74 Oregon State 2333.20 67
75 UAB 2332.19 79
76 Rice 2328.09 84
77 Middle Tenneseee 2326.41 77
78 Toledo 2316.11 82
79 Rutgers 2286.71 68
80 UTEP 2272.17 74
81 Louisiana-Lafayette 2268.78 73
82 Central Michigan 2259.35 83
83 Washington State 2258.69 80
84 Texas Tech 2250.41 85
85 Purdue 2230.94 81
86 Texas State 2225.57 91
87 Fresno State 2218.48 93
88 Appalachian State 2213.03 90
89 Oklahoma State 2191.83 87
90 Akron 2171.63 97
91 Syracuse 2161.68 86
92 Indiana 2157.24 95
93 Colorado 2145.06 88
94 Old Dominion 2127.48 101
95 Florida International 2124.25 92
96 Hawaii 2110.57 96
97 New Mexico 2089.94 89
98 South Alabama 2088.18 94
99 Illinois 2069.96 106
100 Iowa State 2048.83 102
101 San Jose State 2027.54 98
102 Buffalo 2022.91 105
103 Ball State 2019.68 107
104 Ohio 2013.19 104
105 Massachusetts 2006.84 99
106 Louisiana-Monroe 2002.86 110
107 Army 1993.14 108
108 Wake Forest 1992.94 112
109 Texas-San Antonio 1970.58 100
110 Kansas 1953.51 103
111 North Texas 1948.78 115
112 Miami, OH 1919.95 113
113 Southern Mississippi 1896.87 114
114 Florida Atlantic 1894.56 118
115 South Florida 1883.49 116
116 Tulane 1872.46 109
117 UNLV 1858.50 119
118 Vanderbilt 1844.77 111
119 Idaho 1812.18 121
120 Connecticut 1774.94 117
121 Wyoming 1755.19 120
122 New Mexico State 1754.76 122
123 Troy 1716.27 124
124 Tulsa 1714.28 123
125 Kent State 1704.24 125
126 Georgia State 1591.22 126
127 Eastern Michigan 1445.63 127
128 SMU 1160.04 128
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