Bowl season is coming down to the biggest bowl games–the ones that draw the most interest and the biggest audiences. Since xHPI incorporates the quality of prior opponents into the ratings, bowl games affect opponents’ ratings, which ultimately affects the ratings of teams that have not yet played. So I re-calculated xHPI’s point spreads taking into account the early bowl results.
Generally Big 10 and Big 12 teams improved, while SEC teams had a slight drop in score. But the point spread changes were small, for the most part. These revised spreads did not affect xHPI’s choice of a winner, but some games’ spreads changed by more than a point. The table below compares the original point spread calculation with the revised point spread incorporating every bowl game played through December 28.
| Bowl | Teams | Pick as of End of Season | Pick as of 12/28 |
| Belk | South Carolina vs. Virginia | South Carolina (4.95) | South Carolina (2.59) |
| Peach | Florida vs. Michigan | Michigan (8.15) | Michigan (8.81) |
| Arizona | Arkansas St. vs. Nevada | Arkansas St. (1.47) | Arkansas St. (1.97) |
| Cotton | Notre Dame vs. Clemson | Clemson (11.27) | Clemson (11.38) |
| Orange | Oklahoma vs. Alabama | Alabama (17.02) | Alabama (16.56) |
| Military | Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech | Cincinnati (10.03) | Cincinnati (9.69) |
| Sun | Stanford vs. Pittsburgh | Stanford (5.29) | Stanford (4.68) |
| Redbox | Michigan St. vs. Oregon | Michigan St. (0.76) | Michigan St. (1.02) |
| Liberty | Missouri vs. Oklahoma St. | Missouri (12.33) | Missouri (11.25) |
| Holiday | Northwestern vs. Utah | Utah (6.14) | Utah (5.45) |
| Gator | NC State vs. Texas A&M | Texas A&M (6.83) | Texas A&M (6.55) |
| Outback | Mississippi St. vs. Iowa | Iowa (0.76) | Iowa (0.75) |
| Citrus | Kentucky vs. Penn St. | Penn State (<0.01) | Penn State (1.15) |
| Fiesta | LSU vs. Central Florida | LSU (0.21) | LSU (0.46) |
| Rose | Washington vs. Ohio State | Ohio State (1.33) | Ohio State (1.42) |
| Sugar | Texas vs. Georgia | Georgia (18.52) | Georgia (17.7) |
xHPI 