Category Archives: Predictions

Bowl Confidence Picks

Regular readers of xHPI know that I use my scoring to predict the outcome of games. Using a regression model, I use the relative rankings of the two teams in any game to produce a predicted point spread. The model … Continue reading

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October 31 Performance and November 7 Predictions

Another week, another set of essentially coin flips against the spread. However, performance in games outright remains a bright spot for xHPI. Against the Spread All games, week     26-26 (50.0%) All games, season    134-140-2 (48.9%) Best bets, week 2-3 … Continue reading

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October 24 Performance and October 31 Predictions

Meh.  Just meh. That’s how I’m feeling about xHPI’s performance last week. I think I’ve been clear that there are many reasons why xHPI might not perform well in predictions, particularly against the spread, but might still be a valid … Continue reading

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October 17 Performance and October 24 Predictions

xHPI had its first winning week against the spread. However, it did so by only one game, which is essentially only slightly better than one would expect by flipping a coin. While performance against the spread was better, straight-up performance … Continue reading

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October 10 Performance and October 17 Predictions

You didn’t actually place any bets based on my Best Bets, did you? xHPI went 2-3 on picking the correct winner, and 1-4 against the spread on Best Bets. In most of those games, xHPI predicted blowouts, and that’s just … Continue reading

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October 2 Performance and October 9 Predictions

xHPI was strong at predicting the winners of games, but not very strong at predicting games against the spread. However, xHPI did get more than half of its best bets correct. Against the Spread All games, week (and season-to-date) 26-31-1 … Continue reading

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Best Bets for October 3, 2015

As I’ve done in past years, I’ll track the performance of xHPI by looking at predictions of all games between FBS teams, both against the spread and straight up. Because xHPI doesn’t take into consideration injuries, weather conditions, or changes … Continue reading

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