Rankings through October 30, 2021

Rank	Team	Spread Score	Last Week
1	Georgia	105.88	1
2	Alabama	98.21	3
3	Michigan	97.63	2
4	Ohio State	92.46	4
5	Cincinnati	91.83	5
6	Wisconsin	91.42	12
7	Wake Forest	89.47	7
8	Notre Dame	89.35	6
9	Michigan State	89.30	15
10	Penn State	89.10	9
11	Oklahoma	87.37	13
12	Mississippi	86.76	8
13	Pittsburgh	86.64	11
14	Oklahoma State	86.50	14
15	Minnesota	85.93	17
16	North Carolina State	85.01	23
17	Texas-San Antonio	84.88	21
18	Texas A&M	84.77	20
19	Air Force	84.32	22
20	Iowa	83.78	10
21	Oregon	82.86	26
22	Baylor	82.65	25
23	Purdue	82.44	24
24	Iowa State	82.23	16
25	Boise State	82.20	39
26	Arkansas	82.00	29
27	Auburn	81.93	32
28	Florida	81.48	19
29	BYU	81.35	38
30	Kentucky	81.00	18
31	Texas	80.89	30
32	Nevada	80.59	41
33	Clemson	80.57	34
34	Houston	80.54	31
35	Tennessee	80.34	33
36	SMU	80.30	28
37	Virginia	80.21	27
38	Utah	79.90	49
39	Marshall	79.85	47
40	Coastal Carolina	79.12	37
41	San Diego State	78.87	35
42	Fresno State	78.82	46
43	Mississippi State	78.27	54
44	Arizona State	78.18	36
45	Appalachian State	78.16	52
46	Louisiana	77.92	56
47	Army	77.79	48
48	Liberty	77.07	44
49	Oregon State	76.96	40
50	Miami, FL	76.93	59
51	Louisville	76.37	43
52	Syracuse	76.14	55
53	UCLA	76.06	45
54	North Carolina	76.01	42
55	LSU	75.99	50
56	Kansas State	75.93	62
57	Virginia Tech	75.46	60
58	Central Florida	75.45	53
59	Washington State	75.37	67
60	West Virginia	75.28	57
61	USC	73.72	58
62	Nebraska	73.04	66
63	Western Michigan	72.48	63
64	Toledo	72.13	64
65	Utah State	71.99	73
66	Western Kentucky	71.97	71
67	UAB	71.93	68
68	Texas Christian	71.75	61
69	Texas Tech	71.68	51
70	Maryland	71.00	69
71	Washington	70.85	77
72	Florida State	70.73	70
73	Rutgers	70.40	76
74	Colorado State	70.02	79
75	East Carolina	69.86	86
76	California	69.66	91
77	Northern Illinois	69.63	72
78	UTEP	69.41	65
79	South Carolina	68.17	78
80	Illinois	68.17	74
81	Ball State	67.63	81
82	Georgia Tech	67.60	75
83	Memphis	67.56	82
84	South Alabama	67.54	87
85	Eastern Michigan	66.73	84
86	Florida Atlantic	66.49	85
87	Miami, OH	65.93	90
88	Central Michigan	65.68	88
89	Stanford	65.00	83
90	Boston College	64.98	80
91	Troy	64.67	93
92	Georgia State	64.14	95
93	Buffalo	63.97	92
94	Missouri	63.85	89
95	Middle Tennessee	62.98	103
96	Kent State	62.82	96
97	Navy	62.34	106
98	Tulsa	62.30	99
99	Northwestern	62.09	94
100	San Jose State	61.77	102
101	Wyoming	61.38	97
102	Indiana	61.21	100
103	Louisiana Tech	61.18	104
104	Bowling Green	60.17	109
105	Colorado	59.81	105
106	Old Dominion	59.80	112
107	Hawaii	59.18	101
108	Tulane	58.86	111
109	Charoltte	58.55	98
110	Louisiana-Monroe	58.31	107
111	South Florida	55.64	113
112	New Mexico	54.18	116
113	Georgia Southern	54.12	117
114	North Texas	53.47	118
115	UNLV	53.29	115
116	Duke	53.27	110
117	Texas State	53.21	108
118	Arizona	52.28	122
119	Ohio	51.97	119
120	Florida International	51.83	114
121	Arkansas State	50.61	120
122	Rice	50.13	123
123	Akron	48.65	124
124	Temple	47.81	121
125	Southern Mississippi	46.66	126
126	Vanderbilt	46.33	128
127	New Mexico State	45.93	127
128	Kansas	44.78	125
129	Connecticut	42.42	129
130	Massachusetts	38.86	130

I’m gonna tell you what’s wrong with xHPI.

Don’t get me wrong. While I’ve never claimed that what I have developed is perfect, I do think that there is at least some validity to the xHPI rankings. But this week’s rankings highlight what I think is one of the biggest limitations of xHPI.

Look at the rankings. Specifically, look at the top ten. Notice that there are 5 Big 10 teams in the top ten: Michigan (#3), Ohio State (#4), Wisconsin (#6), Michigan State (#9), and Penn State (#10). Of these five, only #9 Michigan State is undefeated. Penn State and Wisconsin both have three losses.

For whatever reasons, the Big 10 early in the season established itself as a strong conference in xHPI’s ratings. When nonconference performance establishes a conference as strong, conference games only reinforce the early rating, and losses don’t carry the same punishment, since opponent’s rating is one of the factors that determines teams’ results for each game. That’s how Michigan can lose yet drop only to #3. That’s how Penn State can lose three straight, yet stay in the top ten.